Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles prediction: Tanner McKee leads a gutted Eagles offense into Dallas's broken pass defense

McKee's second start, thinner cast

This rivalry usually decides the NFC East. Tonight it pairs two 2-4 teams, and one of them is starting over at quarterback. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve with blood clots in his lungs and is widely expected to miss the rest of the season, though the team has not formally ruled him out for the year.

That leaves Tanner McKee, who learned on a Thursday that he was starting and then lost 25-14 to Carolina. He threw 45 passes at 4.8 yards per attempt. He didn't throw an interception. The loss made it four straight defeats, the first such streak under Nick Sirianni, who said "everything's on the table" for an offense now coordinated by Sean Mannion.

The supporting cast got thinner this week. DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) are both out after missing all week of practice. Dallas Goedert returned to practice Saturday and said he expects to play, and Hollywood Brown was a full participant. Darius Cooper has turned eight catches into four touchdowns. This offense already ranked 32nd in yards per play at 4.4 and dead last in explosive-play rate (runs of 10+ yards, passes of 20+).

The defense that can't get off the field

Here is the tension that makes this game interesting. Dallas brings the worst defense in the league by EPA per dropback allowed (expected points added: how much each snap moves an offense toward points). The Cowboys allow 0.34, 32nd of 32. Opponents convert 54.7% of third downs against them, also last.

They also give up explosive plays on 10.8% of snaps, 31st. For an offense that can't generate big plays on its own, this is the best possible opponent.

Help is mixed. Linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and cornerback Cobie Durant are cleared to return, and Joey Porter Jr. is cleared too. Linebackers Dee Winters and Marist Liufau and safety P.J. Locke are out.

Prescott's clean pocket

The other side of the ball tilts hard toward Dallas. The Cowboys allow a sack on just 2.6% of dropbacks, the best rate in the league. Philadelphia gets home on 3.4% of opponent dropbacks, 31st. That rush is now without Nolan Smith (concussion), and Jonathan Greenard and Jalyx Hunt are questionable. Ebiketie and A.J. Epenesa are the only edge rushers certain to play.

Dallas throws on 66.4% of early downs, the most in the league, and it won't need to change. CeeDee Lamb averages 96.2 receiving yards a game, and George Pickens is good to go after a limited week with a shoulder issue. The Eagles will be without cornerback Michael Carter II. Tackle Drew Shelton is out for Dallas, but left tackle Tyler Guyton is cleared.

When the Cowboys get close, they finish: they score touchdowns on 77.3% of red-zone trips, 2nd in the league.

A run game neither side trusts

Dallas runs for 76.0 yards per game, 30th, and its defense gives up 149.8 on the ground, 31st. Philadelphia's run defense isn't much sturdier, ranking 31st in EPA per designed run allowed. Javonte Williams has seven rushing touchdowns despite modest efficiency.

Saquon Barkley is the swing piece. He is questionable with a hamstring injury but was a full practice participant Saturday after two limited days. A healthy Barkley against this run defense is the Eagles' most realistic way to keep McKee in manageable downs.

Where the line sits

Dallas is favored by 4.5 on the road, the same number our feed first recorded on Oct. 20. The total has slipped to 44 from 44.25. The Cowboys have failed to cover their last two games as favorites, losses to Tampa Bay and Green Bay. Philadelphia has covered once all season.

The forecast is benign for football at Lincoln Financial Field: 57.5 degrees and 5 mph wind at kickoff. Both teams come in on eight days of rest, and the last meeting went to Dallas, 24-21, in November 2025.