Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers prediction: Short-handed Panthers bring two healthy corners into Lambeau on Thursday

Carolina runs short on bodies

Carolina arrives at Lambeau on four days' rest after a 43-13 home loss to Tampa Bay, and the injury list has only grown since. The Panthers have ruled out both guards, Damien Lewis and Torricelli Simpkins III, and right tackle Taylor Moton is on injured reserve with a lower-leg fracture. Monroe Freeling is filling in at right tackle, with Rasheed Walker, a former Packer who has struggled, at left tackle.

The secondary is thinner still. Cornerback Akayleb Evans is out, Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are sidelined, and as of Wednesday Carolina had two healthy corners, Will Lee and Chau Smith-Wade, with practice-squad additions expected before kickoff.

That is a rough week to face a defense that leads the league with 1.9 takeaways per game and allows explosive plays (runs of 10+ yards, passes of 20+) on just 6.3% of snaps, 3rd of 32. Bryce Young has been sacked 17 times behind a line that allows a sack on 6.6% of dropbacks, 20th. Carolina also throws on 62.8% of early downs, the highest rate in the league, so the protection problem shows up on nearly every series. Young, who appeared on the report early in the week, practiced fully and carries no game designation.

Green Bay's run game gets relief

Green Bay owns the league's worst ground attack: 59.9 rushing yards per game and -0.27 EPA per designed run (expected points added: how much each snap moved a team toward points), both 32nd. If any defense can let that unit breathe, it is this one. The Panthers allow 153.2 rushing yards per game, last in the league, and rank 30th in EPA per designed run allowed. Their top edge rusher, Jaelan Phillips, is out with a hamstring injury for a second straight game.

Jordan Love can also go after the depleted corners. Carolina allows 208.2 passing yards per game, 6th, but built that number with a fuller secondary. Christian Watson has 595 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Matthew Golden (shoulder/foot) is questionable after being upgraded to limited practice Wednesday, and his status may not be known until inactives are released.

The Packers are patched too

Green Bay is not healthy up front either. Center Sean Rhyan (ankle) and right guard Travis Glover (knee) are out, and backup center Jacob Monk is on injured reserve; Rhyan and Monk both left the Detroit loss hurt. John Williams is the assumed starter at center, though the team hasn't confirmed it, and Kevin Zeitler likely starts at right guard. The Packers have protected well, 9th in sack rate allowed, but a reshuffled interior on a short week is a new test.

The pass rush is shorthanded. Micah Parsons is still working back from ACL surgery and won't play, defensive tackles Devonte Wyatt and Anthony Campbell and edge Brenton Cox Jr. are questionable, and linebacker Zaire Franklin (shin) is out. Green Bay sits 19th in defensive sack rate, so Carolina's backup guards may face less heat than the injury math suggests.

Touchdowns or field goals

Green Bay moves the ball but stalls near the goal line. The Packers score touchdowns on 46.2% of red-zone trips, 30th in the league. Carolina is the opponent most likely to cure that: it lets opponents into the end zone on 76.5% of red-zone trips, 28th. Whether the Packers turn drives into sevens or threes may decide whether this stays a one-score game. Panthers kicker Ryan Fitzgerald was added to the report with an illness Wednesday but has no designation.

What the market expects

Green Bay is a 3.5-point favorite, unchanged since our feed first saw the game Tuesday, while the total has dipped from 48 to 47. Packers games have gone under the closing total five times in seven. Carolina failed to cover as a home favorite last week.

The Panthers won the last meeting 16-13 at Lambeau last November. The kickoff forecast is dry and cool, with gusts up to 21 mph that could bother deep throws and kicks.