Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Sam Houston State Bearkats prediction: Brock Glenn's legs could swing a Wednesday run-defense nightmare
Sam Houston smothers passes and bleeds on the ground, which suits Western Kentucky's new quarterback just fine.
| Spread | Western Kentucky -1 |
|---|
- A ground-heavy game where WKU's quarterback run game tests a Sam Houston front that ranks 134th in rushing EPA allowed.
- Landyn Locke against WKU's pass rush, with three Bearkat linemen out at Liberty.
- Our model doesn't price this game yet.
Two run defenses in freefall
The defining fact of this midweek Conference USA game is that neither defense can stop the run. Sam Houston ranks 134th of 138 in rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play on runs). Western Kentucky is worse by that measure, at 137th.
Both are among the worst against the run: the Hilltoppers allow 204.0 rushing yards a game and the Bearkats 211.6. The catch is that neither offense has run the ball well either. Line yards, a measure of how much push the blockers create on each carry, rank WKU 112th and Sam Houston 118th.
The tiebreaker is what happens when teams throw on Sam Houston. The Bearkats allow just 139.0 passing yards per game, 4th nationally, and rank 27th in passing EPA allowed. That pass defense pushes opponents toward the ground, which is exactly where Sam Houston breaks.
Glenn changes WKU's math
Brock Glenn is WKU's starter. Rodney Tisdale Jr. sat out the Missouri State game, and Tyson Helton said he "took a couple hard hits." There has been no update on Tisdale for Wednesday.
Glenn turns the quarterback into a runner. He carried 15 times for 95 yards against Missouri State, scored the opening touchdown from a yard out, then hit Jonathan Stafford Jr. for a 42-yard score. He averages 5.2 yards per carry this season with 5 rushing touchdowns.
Ajay Allen added 105 yards on 13 carries that night. Stafford is the steady target, with 22 catches for 246 yards over the last three games.
Locke's arm, a thin line
Sam Houston wins through the air when it wins at all. Its 274.0 passing yards per game rank 24th, and Locke has 11 touchdowns against 3 interceptions.
Against FBS defenses, his production has faded. He managed 5.3 yards per attempt at Texas Tech and 4.6 at Liberty. Protection is the problem: the Bearkats allow 2.6 sacks per game, 110th nationally. Their havoc allowed rate, the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception or pass breakup, ranks 122nd.
WKU's pass rush offers the cure, though. The Hilltoppers average 1.0 sacks per game, 124th. If Locke gets time, Tim Burns Jr. is the deep threat, with 205 yards on just 9 catches.
Where Sam Houston drives stall
Sam Houston's bigger issue is finishing. The Bearkats score 2.87 points per scoring opportunity, 121st, and have made 3 of 5 field goals. They also start drives at their own 26.1-yard line on average, 124th, so they have farther to go every time.
The Liberty loss showed all of it. Sam Houston went 0-for-3 on fourth down and was outscored 21-0 after halftime. Phil Longo is drawing hot-seat talk after that game.
WKU's defense is soft near the goal line, allowing 4.45 points per opportunity (130th). The Bearkats will get chances in the red zone. Their record says they won't cash many of them.
Form, history and the line
WKU looks sharper lately, and the schedule explains why. Its last-three offensive success rate of 44.3% came against Mercyhurst, New Mexico State and Missouri State, the last two ranked 122nd and 130th in SP+. In the middle of that run WKU lost 34-13 at New Mexico State.
The ratings split. SP+ has WKU 117th and Sam Houston 125th, while SRS flips them, 99th for Sam Houston to 118th for WKU. WKU has won all three meetings since Sam Houston joined the conference, most recently 41-24 last season.
WKU is favoured by 1.5, unchanged from the opener, and no total is posted. A short number for a road team fits a game where neither side has earned much trust.
Key players
- Brock Glenn (Western Kentucky): Ran 15 times for 95 yards in his start against Missouri State and averages 5.2 yards per carry this season.
- Jonathan Stafford Jr. (Western Kentucky): Has 22 catches for 246 yards over the last three games, including a 10-catch, 108-yard night at New Mexico State.
- Ajay Allen (Western Kentucky): Broke out for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns on 13 carries against Missouri State.
- Rodney Tisdale Jr. (Western Kentucky): Threw for 857 yards in four games but sat out the Missouri State win after taking hard hits.
- Landyn Locke (Sam Houston): Has 1,306 passing yards and 11 touchdowns, but managed 4.6 yards per attempt at Liberty.
- Tim Burns Jr. (Sam Houston): Averages big chunks, with 205 yards on 9 catches this season.
- Grady O'Neill (Sam Houston): Leads the Bearkats with 25 catches for 255 yards.
- Elijah Groves (Sam Houston): Has 2.5 sacks this season but none in the last three games.
Numbers that matter
| WKU rushing EPA allowed | 137th | Sam Houston's weak run game could find room against one of the worst run defenses in FBS. |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston pass yards allowed | 4th | An elite pass defense steers WKU toward Glenn's legs, where Sam Houston ranks 134th in rushing EPA allowed. |
| Sam Houston sacks allowed per game | 2.6 | Ranks 110th, and three of the top six linemen missed the Liberty game. |
| Sam Houston points per scoring opportunity | 2.87 | Ranks 121st, a finishing problem that showed up again at Liberty. |
| WKU spread | -1.5 | Unchanged from the opener, with no total posted. |
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Sam Houston State Bearkats: quick answers
Who is favored in Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Sam Houston State Bearkats?
Western Kentucky is favored by 1 points (Western Kentucky -1).
When is Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Sam Houston State Bearkats?
Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.