Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Missouri State Bears prediction: Isaiah Myers tests Sam Houston's stingy secondary on a Tuesday night

Myers against the wall

Two losing Conference USA teams meet for the first time as FBS programs, on a Tuesday night in Springfield. The most interesting player on the field wears a Missouri State jersey.

Isaiah Myers caught 11 passes for 242 yards at Delaware. That was the second-best receiving day in school history. Over his last three games he has 454 receiving yards, and he has 796 for the season.

Sam Houston's secondary is built to stop exactly this. The Bearkats allow 141.0 passing yards per game, 3rd of 138 FBS teams. Part of that is volume: opponents run for 200.7 yards a game against them, so they rarely need to throw. The per-play numbers still hold up. Sam Houston ranks 19th in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each snap helps an offense score). It also ranks 14th in third-down conversions allowed.

Missouri State's passing game is solid if unspectacular, ranking 55th in passing EPA. Henry Belin IV projects to start at quarterback. If he can find Myers on early downs, this matchup decides the game. If Sam Houston takes Myers away, Missouri State has to lean on a banged-up run game.

Locke's leg, a stalled offense

Landyn Locke left last week's 30-24 loss at New Mexico State with a leg injury. Phil Longo said the staff first feared a fibula fracture. X-rays came back clear, but Locke could barely move laterally. He returned to that game, and there's been no word on his status for Tuesday. True freshman Brett Holloway took snaps while Locke was out.

The offense was sputtering before the injury. Over the last three games, Sam Houston averaged 10 points with a 28.0% success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule). Locke completed 55.4% of his passes in that stretch at 5.3 yards per attempt.

The one bright spot came right after halftime at New Mexico State, when Locke hit Tim Burns Jr. for an 81-yard touchdown. That fits a team that ranks 23rd in explosiveness but 126th in success rate. Sam Houston also plays on six days of rest, against seven for Missouri State.

Protection is the worry for a less mobile Locke. Sam Houston ranks 135th in havoc allowed and gives up 2.57 sacks per game. Missouri State's defense isn't built to punish that, though. It ranks 122nd in havoc and 113th in sacks.

Where the game tilts

Sam Houston can't run the ball. It averages 83.0 rushing yards per game, last in FBS, and ranks 132nd in line yards (the rushing yards credited to the offensive line). That leaves the Bearkats one-dimensional against a defense that has its own problems.

Missouri State has the better path on the ground, even short-handed. Ramone Green Jr. and offensive lineman Logan Scrivner will miss time, and Casey Woods said the injury list is deeper than ever. Jambres Dubar averages 5.5 yards per carry, but his availability is unclear.

The matchup still favors the Bears. Sam Houston ranks 124th in rushing EPA allowed and 111th in line yards allowed. Our projection has Missouri State running for 171 yards. When the favorite covers, its rushing goes over its line 33.9% of the time in our testing, so a Missouri State cover and a strong Bears ground game tend to come together.

Drives that die short

Sam Houston's biggest weakness may be finishing. The Bearkats score 2.48 points per scoring opportunity, 134th nationally, and have made just 5/8 field goals.

That has cost them against weak opponents. They lost 3-16 at home to Western Kentucky, a team ranked 114th in SP+. They then lost to New Mexico State, ranked 125th. Sam Houston hasn't covered in any of its last four games.

Missouri State's defense gives opponents plenty of chances. It allows a 50.1% success rate, 135th, and has given up 38.7 points per game over its last three, including 61 at Delaware. Opponents start drives at their own 32.9-yard line on average, 137th. Short fields could rescue Sam Houston's red-zone problems.

The number holds steady

Missouri State opened as a 6.5-point favorite, and the line has moved to 6. The total sits at 51.

Our model agrees. It makes Missouri State a 6.27-point favorite and projects a 28.7 to 22.5 score. That gives the Bears a 65.0% chance to win. For the first half, our fair line is Missouri State by 3.46 with a total of 26.39.