Ohio Bobcats vs Miami (OH) RedHawks prediction: Miami's run wall could push Nick Poulos toward its weakest spot
Miami's run defense ranks 15th nationally, but every yard it takes from Ohio on the ground nudges the MAC-leading Bobcats toward a pass defense ranked 134th.
Miami (OH) RedHawks covered the closing spread (Ohio Bobcats -1.5). The game went over the closing total of 47.5.
- Proven wallets leaned Ohio Bobcats on the moneyline (6 wallets, 75% one way): it lost.
| Spread | Miami (OH) -1.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 47.5 |
- Ohio tries to run, Miami's front holds, and the game turns on whether Poulos punishes a secondary allowing 279.7 passing yards per game.
- Ohio's pass rush, 21st in tackles for loss, against a Miami line giving up 2.78 sacks per game to a struggling Heavner.
- Our number makes Miami a 0.7-point favorite, a shade below the market's 1.5, with a total of 47.6 against 47.5.
The wall and the trap door
Ohio arrives at Yager Stadium 5-0 in the MAC and riding a six-game win streak, yet the market makes the 5-4 RedHawks a 1.5-point favorite in the 103rd Battle of the Bricks. It's senior night in Oxford's Tuesday slot on ESPN2, and the matchup that decides it starts on the ground.
Ohio wins by running. The Bobcats average 188.9 rushing yards per game, 32nd of 138. Their line yards per carry, a measure of the push blockers create before a back is touched, rank 15th. Duncan Brune is hot, averaging 6.3 yards per carry over his last three games, and his 91-yard touchdown run with 3:57 left put away Akron.
That strength runs straight into Miami's best unit. The RedHawks allow 97.6 rushing yards per game, 15th nationally, and rank 14th in line yards allowed. Their stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, ranks 29th.
The problem for Miami is what happens when Ohio throws. The RedHawks rank 134th in passing yards allowed at 279.7 per game. They sit 112th in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per dropback). Buffalo's Jason Wright threw for 358 yards and four touchdowns in Buffalo's overtime win over Miami last time out.
Poulos is built to exploit that. Back as the starter after a concussion cost him several games, he has thrown no interceptions all season. Over his last three games he's averaging 10.0 yards per attempt. Dom Dorwart turned nine catches into 245 yards and two touchdowns over his last three games.
Heavner's shrinking pocket
Miami's quarterback picture is far shakier. Caleb Heavner is expected to make his sixth start, and he's completing 54.4% of his passes at 6.2 yards per attempt. He's thrown three interceptions in his last three games. Gotkowski is out for the season, and McComb's status hasn't been confirmed, so there's little behind him.
The protection doesn't help. Miami allows 2.78 sacks per game, 119th nationally, and ranks 90th in havoc allowed (the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception or breakup). Ohio's front lives in the backfield: 6.44 tackles for loss per game ranks 21st. Michael Molnar has 14 tackles for loss on the season, including a three-game stretch with a sack in each.
Miami's offense still has a pulse when it hits. Its explosiveness ranks 11th, and its rushing EPA ranks 25th. Rodney Nelson has four rushing touchdowns in his last three games. But the RedHawks convert only 35.9% on third down (105th), while Ohio converts 47.8% (20th). That gap points to Ohio holding the ball longer.
Records built on soft ground
Ohio's streak deserves a closer look. Its last four opponents carry SP+ ranks of 128th, 139th, 124th and 136th. The average SP+ of its FBS opponents is -13.2, softer than Miami's -8.5.
The Bobcats have also stopped beating numbers. They won by four against Eastern Michigan as 11.5-point favorites and by eight at Akron laying 12. They're 3-5-1 against the spread.
Miami's form is worse. The RedHawks won one-score games against Massachusetts and Central Michigan, then lost 34-31 to Buffalo as 6.5-point favorites. They're 4-5 against the spread. The ratings side with Ohio: SP+ puts the Bobcats 78th and Miami 92nd. Ohio has won three of the last five meetings, including 38-3 in a 2024 neutral-site game and 24-20 last season.
Kickoffs and missed kicks
In a game priced this tight, hidden yards matter. Ohio returns kickoffs at 29.7 yards per attempt, sixth nationally. Miami allows 26.5 per return, 129th. If Ohio scores and Miami kicks back, the Bobcats could start short drives.
Miami answers with field position elsewhere: its average drive starts at its own 31.2, 19th in the country. Neither team kicks well. Ohio is 10/14 on field goals, and kicker Will Hryszko was listed out before the Akron game with no update since. Miami is 12/18.
Where our number lands
The line opened at Miami -1.5 and hasn't moved across 17 books. Our model sees nearly the same game: Miami by 0.7 with a 52% win probability, and a total of 47.6 against the market's 47.5. The slight lean toward Ohio fits the matchup above, where the Bobcats' passing efficiency meets Miami's weakest unit.
Where the money is on Ohio Bobcats vs Miami (OH) RedHawks
On the Kalshi moneyline: Ohio Bobcats: 73% of bets, 76% of the money; Miami (OH) RedHawks: 27% of bets, 24% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Miami (OH) RedHawks -1.5: 65% of bets, 82% of the money; Ohio Bobcats +1.5: 35% of bets, 18% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 47.5: 63% of bets, 22% of the money; Under 47.5: 37% of bets, 78% of the money.
Ohio Bobcats vs Miami (OH) RedHawks stats (this season)
| Stat | Ohio Bobcats | Miami (OH) RedHawks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Points per game | 28.2 (69th of 138) | 28.1 (71st of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 22.9 (55th of 138) | 25.7 (76th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.86 (60th of 138) | 6.02 (48th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.41 (64th of 138) | 5.60 (79th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 182.2 (117th of 138) | 204.2 (95th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 185.2 (35th of 138) | 153.4 (71st of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 43.8% (37th of 138) | 34.2% (117th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.30 (75th of 138) | 0.80 (24th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 0.90 (109th of 138) | 1.20 (69th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.171 (49th of 138) | 0.142 (64th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.069 (60th of 138) | 0.099 (81st of 138) |
Key players
- Nick Poulos (Ohio): He has no interceptions this season and is averaging 10.0 yards per attempt over his last three games.
- Duncan Brune (Ohio): He's averaging 6.3 yards per carry over his last three games, including 111 yards at Akron.
- Dom Dorwart (Ohio): He has 245 receiving yards and two touchdowns over his last three games.
- Michael Molnar (Ohio): He leads the defense with 14 tackles for loss and six sacks.
- Caleb Heavner (Miami (OH)): He's completing 54.4% of his passes with four interceptions on the season.
- Rodney Nelson (Miami (OH)): He has 230 rushing yards and four touchdowns over his last three games.
- Maleek Huggins (Miami (OH)): He leads the receivers with 473 yards, including 122 against Central Michigan.
- Roosevelt Andrews III (Miami (OH)): He has six sacks, 2.5 of them in his last three games.
Numbers that matter
| Miami pass yards allowed rank | 134th | At 279.7 per game, this is the soft spot Ohio's efficient passing game can target. |
|---|---|---|
| Miami line yards allowed | 2.53 | Ranked 14th, Miami's front is built to blunt Ohio's run-first offense. |
| Miami sacks allowed per game | 2.78 | Ranked 119th, it sets up Ohio's pass rush against a shaky Heavner. |
| Miami kick return average allowed | 26.5 | Ranked 129th, it faces an Ohio return unit ranked sixth. |
| Our fair spread | Miami -0.7 | Slightly tighter than the market's Miami -1.5. |
Ohio Bobcats vs Miami (OH) RedHawks: quick answers
What was the final score of Ohio Bobcats vs Miami (OH) RedHawks?
Ohio Bobcats 17, Miami (OH) RedHawks 34 (final). Miami (OH) RedHawks covered the closing spread (Ohio Bobcats -1.5). The game went over the closing total of 47.5.
Who is favored in Ohio Bobcats vs Miami (OH) RedHawks?
Miami (OH) is favored by 1.5 points (Miami (OH) -1.5).
What is the over/under for Ohio Bobcats vs Miami (OH) RedHawks?
The total is 47.5 points.
When is Ohio Bobcats vs Miami (OH) RedHawks?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Where is Ohio Bobcats vs Miami (OH) RedHawks played?
Yager Stadium.
Where is the money on Ohio Bobcats vs Miami (OH) RedHawks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Ohio Bobcats: 73% of bets, 76% of the money; Miami (OH) RedHawks: 27% of bets, 24% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Miami (OH) RedHawks -1.5: 65% of bets, 82% of the money; Ohio Bobcats +1.5: 35% of bets, 18% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 47.5: 63% of bets, 22% of the money; Under 47.5: 37% of bets, 78% of the money.