New Mexico State Aggies vs Sam Houston State Bearkats prediction: James Jones and New Mexico State run at Sam Houston's softest spot
New Mexico State's best player carries the ball and Sam Houston can't stop the run, so the Aggies' biggest threat may be their own turnovers.
| Spread | New Mexico State -2.5 |
|---|
- Expect New Mexico State to lean on James Jones against a bad run defense while Sam Houston's stalled offense struggles to reach the end zone.
- Jones, at 7.3 yards per carry over his last three games, against a Bearkats defense allowing 200.3 rushing yards per game.
- Our number makes New Mexico State a 1.9-point favorite, close to the market's 2.5, and our total of 46.5 matches the line.
Jones Against a Broken Front
Two teams with three wins between them play on a Wednesday night in Huntsville, and only one has a reliable way to move the ball. Sam Houston (1-5) needs to win five of its last six to reach bowl eligibility. New Mexico State is a 2.5-point road favorite, and the reason is the back who carries the ball.
James Jones is running better every week. He has averaged 7.3 yards per carry over his last three games, and he went for 155 yards in the win over Western Kentucky. Sam Houston is close to the worst matchup an opponent could draw against that form. The Bearkats allow 200.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks 129th of 138 FBS teams.
The damage starts at the line of scrimmage. Sam Houston ranks 115th in line yards allowed, a stat that credits the offensive line for the first few yards of every run. Backs are getting downhill before anyone touches them. The Aggies also rank 13th in explosiveness, which measures how big their successful plays are. When Jones gets through the line, the gains tend to keep going.
Sam Houston's Missing Touchdowns
The Bearkats haven't scored a touchdown since 1:56 remained in the second quarter at Texas Tech, and they haven't reached the end zone after halftime since the opener at Troy. They scored three points in each of their last two games, losses to Liberty and Western Kentucky. Phil Longo said it would be a week of soul searching after the WKU loss.
Landyn Locke remains the starter, but he has averaged 4.6 yards per attempt over his last three games. He also has fewer targets to throw to. Tight end Brock Kuhl is out for the season, and fellow tight end Max Whisner is questionable.
The run game offers Locke no relief, ranking 134th in rushing yards per game. His protection is shaky too. Sam Houston ranks 132nd in havoc allowed, which counts the share of plays that end in a sack, tackle for loss, turnover or pass breakup.
That plays to New Mexico State's strength. The Aggies rank 31st in sacks per game, and Gabe Peterson has 3.0 sacks in his last three games, including a career-high two at FIU.
The Aggies' Turnover Problem
Sam Houston's best path runs through New Mexico State's mistakes. The Aggies average 1.83 turnovers per game, 124th nationally, and three giveaways sank them in the 22-3 loss at FIU. The Bearkats' defense ranks 18th in havoc rate, so it can create those chances.
The quarterback job is unsettled. New Mexico State hasn't confirmed a starter for Wednesday. Adam Damante started the win over Western Kentucky and projects to start again. Trey Hedden, the other option, has thrown five interceptions across his last three appearances.
The passing game isn't where the Aggies should look anyway. Sam Houston ranks fourth nationally in passing yards allowed per game, partly because opponents would rather run on it. The cleanest plan for New Mexico State is a heavy dose of Jones and as few risky throws as possible.
Rest, Kicks and Our Number
New Mexico State comes in with 14 days of rest. Sam Houston turns around on seven days after its own Wednesday game, and it is coming off three straight losses. The Aggies won the last meeting 37-10.
Neither kicking game inspires confidence in a game this tight. New Mexico State ranks 134th in extra-point percentage, and kicker Ilya Uvaydov is questionable. Sam Houston has made 4 of 7 field goals.
The line opened at 2.5 and hasn't moved. Our model makes New Mexico State a 1.9-point favorite with a fair total of 46.5, matching the market. It gives Sam Houston a 45.0% chance to win. In our testing, favorites that cover also tend to go over their rushing lines, and that fits a game script built around Jones.
Key players
- James Jones (New Mexico State): He has 599 rushing yards at 6.5 per carry this season and ran for 155 against Western Kentucky.
- Gabe Peterson (New Mexico State): He leads the pass rush with 4.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss, and 3.0 of those sacks came in the last three games.
- Trey Hedden (New Mexico State): He has completed 45.2% of his passes with five interceptions across his last three appearances.
- Josiah Thomas (New Mexico State): He has 161 receiving yards over the last three games, the most among the Aggies' receivers in that span.
- Landyn Locke (Sam Houston): He has 11 touchdown passes this season but has averaged 4.6 yards per attempt over his last three games.
- Chris Reed (Sam Houston): He leads the Bearkats with 289 receiving yards and three touchdown catches.
- Alton McCaskill (Sam Houston): He averages 4.0 yards per carry behind a line that ranks 127th in line yards.
- Brody Henderson (Sam Houston): He leads this group of defenders with 27 tackles and has added 2.0 sacks.
Numbers that matter
| Sam Houston rushing yards allowed per game | 200.3 | This ranks 129th of 138 and sets up New Mexico State's ground game. |
|---|---|---|
| Jones yards per carry, last 3 games | 7.3 | The Aggies' lead back is trending up heading into this matchup. |
| Sam Houston points per game, last 3 | 6.7 | The Bearkats haven't scored an offensive touchdown since the second quarter at Texas Tech. |
| New Mexico State turnovers per game | 1.83 | This ranks 124th nationally and gives Sam Houston its clearest path to an upset. |
| Sam Houston havoc allowed | 19.2% | It ranks 132nd, which means trouble against an Aggies front that ranks 31st in sacks per game. |
New Mexico State Aggies vs Sam Houston State Bearkats: quick answers
Who is favored in New Mexico State Aggies vs Sam Houston State Bearkats?
New Mexico State is favored by 2.5 points (New Mexico State -2.5).
When is New Mexico State Aggies vs Sam Houston State Bearkats?
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.