Houston Cougars vs Colorado Buffaloes prediction: Conner Weigman's chain-moving Houston offense aims at Colorado's soft secondary
Houston leads the country in success rate and third-down conversions, and Colorado's only real counter is a front that lives in the backfield.
| Spread | Houston -9.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 51.5 |
- Houston likely sustains long drives through the air while Colorado's turnovers and poor field position keep the Buffaloes chasing all night.
- Colorado's pass rush, 10th in havoc rate, against a Houston line that ranks 7th in havoc allowed.
- Our number makes Houston an 11.15-point favorite, more than the 9.5 market, and likes Houston -3.5 in the first half.
The Cougars live on schedule
Houston arrives in Boulder at 7-2 and ranked 14th, still in the Big 12 title race. Colorado is 3-6 and must win out to reach a bowl for just the second time in six seasons. Friday night comes down to whether a Buffaloes defense that struggles to cover can slow the most efficient offense in the country.
Houston ranks 1st in success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) at 53.3%. It converts 59.3% of its third downs, also 1st. Conner Weigman runs it, with 22 touchdown passes against 2 interceptions. In passing EPA (expected points added per play), the Cougars rank 3rd.
Colorado ranks 108th in passing EPA allowed and 115th in passing yards allowed. Amare Thomas is the obvious beneficiary; he has 337 yards and 4 touchdowns over his last three games. Weigman hurt his ankle in the Utah loss but was a full go against Cincinnati.
What Houston isn't is explosive. It ranks 128th in explosiveness, a measure of how much value its successful plays carry. The Cougars win with completions and conversions, not bombs. That means long drives, and many chances for Colorado to make one disruptive play.
Colorado's one real weapon
That disruption is where Colorado can strike. The Buffaloes rank 10th in havoc rate (the share of plays with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup). They rank 5th in stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line. Gideon Lampron has 4 sacks in the last three games alone.
That front is why Colorado ranks 24th in rushing EPA allowed, and why Houston's run game may have to take a back seat. But Houston's line is built for this fight: 3rd in line yards per carry and 7th in havoc allowed. If Weigman stays clean, Colorado has little behind its rush to fall back on.
Colorado gives too much away
Houston's defense is no wall. It ranks 104th in EPA allowed per play and 113th against the pass, and Joseph Williams has 853 receiving yards for Colorado. Houston cornerback Allen, who leads the team in pass breakups, is reported to be sitting the first half after a targeting foul against Cincinnati, though that has not been confirmed.
Isaac Wilson starts at quarterback. Julian Lewis was benched after the Baylor game, then suffered a medical emergency at the team's facility and was hospitalized; there has been no update on him for this week. Asked about Lewis's future, Sanders said, "That's on him."
The problem is what Colorado does with the ball. The Buffaloes commit 2.0 turnovers per game, 136th of 138, and Wilson has thrown 8 interceptions. They score 2.46 points per scoring opportunity, 134th. Their run game ranks 133rd in rushing EPA, so there is no ground fallback.
Field position compounds it. Colorado's drives start on average at the 25.0-yard line, 136th nationally. Houston's opponents start at 22.9, the best mark in the country. Colorado also ranks 136th in kick return yards allowed.
Houston's slide and the number
Houston's season numbers flatter where it is now. Over the last three games, its offensive EPA per play fell to 0.234 from 0.321 for the season. Its defense allowed 0.272 per play in that stretch, well worse than its 0.152 season mark. The Cougars have failed to cover in each of their last three games and are 3-6 against the spread. Colorado is 2-6-1.
The line opened at 10.5 and has moved toward Colorado, to 9.5, with the total at 51.5. Our model goes the other way, pricing Houston as an 11.15-point favorite. It gives Colorado a 24.0% chance to win.
The first half is where our numbers lean. The model makes Houston a 6.96-point favorite before the break, which makes Houston -3.5 in the first half our pick. A first-half absence for Allen, if confirmed, would be the main counterweight.
Where the money is on Houston Cougars vs Colorado Buffaloes
On the Kalshi moneyline: Houston Cougars: 76% of bets, 89% of the money; Colorado Buffaloes: 24% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Houston Cougars -9.5: 85% of bets, 43% of the money; Colorado Buffaloes +9.5: 15% of bets, 57% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 51.5: 79% of bets, 96% of the money; Under 51.5: 21% of bets, 4% of the money.
Houston Cougars vs Colorado Buffaloes stats (this season)
| Stat | Houston Cougars | Colorado Buffaloes |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-2 | 3-6 |
| Points per game | 35.4 (22nd of 138) | 19.8 (124th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 (41st of 138) | 28.3 (101st of 138) |
| Yards per play | 6.80 (11th of 138) | 5.64 (86th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.91 (104th of 138) | 5.35 (56th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 262.4 (29th of 138) | 255.4 (33rd of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 207.8 (17th of 138) | 131.6 (103rd of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 59.3% (1st of 138) | 37.4% (93rd of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67 (10th of 138) | 2.00 (136th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.44 (37th of 138) | 0.78 (124th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.321 (7th of 138) | 0.031 (114th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.152 (104th of 138) | 0.069 (61st of 138) |
Key players
- Conner Weigman (Houston): He has 22 touchdown passes against 2 interceptions at 8.9 yards per attempt.
- Amare Thomas (Houston): He has 337 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns over his last three games.
- Re'Shaun Sanford II (Houston): He ran for 126 yards on 15 carries against Cincinnati, including a late touchdown.
- Brandon Mack (Houston): He leads this group with 9.0 tackles for loss, 5.0 of them in the last three games.
- Isaac Wilson (Colorado): He is averaging 9.0 yards per attempt over his last three games but has 8 interceptions on the season.
- Joseph Williams (Colorado): He leads Colorado with 853 receiving yards, including 121 against Arizona State.
- Gideon Lampron (Colorado): He has 95 tackles and 4.0 sacks over his last three games.
- Santana Hopper (Colorado): He has 14.0 tackles for loss in 8 games.
Numbers that matter
| Houston success rate | 53.3% | Best in the country, the engine of a methodical, drive-sustaining offense. |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado passing EPA allowed rank | 108th | Weigman's efficient passing game should find room against this secondary. |
| Colorado havoc rate rank | 10th | The Buffaloes' one way to blow up drives, against a Houston line that ranks 7th in havoc allowed. |
| Colorado turnovers per game | 2.0 | Ranks 136th of 138 and feeds a Houston defense that already wins field position. |
| Our first-half fair line | 6.96 | Our model makes Houston nearly a touchdown better before halftime, well above the -3.5 available. |
Houston Cougars vs Colorado Buffaloes: quick answers
Who is favored in Houston Cougars vs Colorado Buffaloes?
Houston is favored by 9.5 points (Houston -9.5).
What is the over/under for Houston Cougars vs Colorado Buffaloes?
The total is 51.5 points.
When is Houston Cougars vs Colorado Buffaloes?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 10:15 PM ET.
Where is Houston Cougars vs Colorado Buffaloes played?
Folsom Field.
Where is the money on Houston Cougars vs Colorado Buffaloes?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Houston Cougars: 76% of bets, 89% of the money; Colorado Buffaloes: 24% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Houston Cougars -9.5: 85% of bets, 43% of the money; Colorado Buffaloes +9.5: 15% of bets, 57% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 51.5: 79% of bets, 96% of the money; Under 51.5: 21% of bets, 4% of the money.