St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Presbyterian Blue Hose prediction: St. Thomas lost its scorers and still lays points at Presbyterian

The Tommies start over

Two programs picked second in their leagues open the season against each other for the first time tonight at the Templeton Center. One of them looks very different from last spring. St. Thomas went 24-10 last season, but the players who carried it are gone.

Nolan Minessale averaged 19.8 points on a 31.2% usage rate and is now at Marquette. Nick Janowski scored 16.1 per game and left for Davidson. Isaiah Johnson-Arigu went to Northern Iowa. Only 28.4% of last season's minutes return, alongside seven newcomers. Last season's team stats describe a group that mostly isn't here, so they are a loose guide at best.

What's left is a shooting forward, a returning guard and John Tauer, now in his 16th season as coach. Kendall Blue joined Bjerke and Austin Herro on the Preseason All-Summit first team, and JUCO forward Julius Wade and DePaul transfer Jeremy Lorenz are among the new faces.

Threes against a soft perimeter

The Tommies' shot profile is the part most likely to carry over. They took 45.9% of their shots from three last season, 52nd in Division I. Presbyterian's defense was most vulnerable at the arc, where opponents shot 35.0% (265th).

Bjerke is the reason the style should survive. He made 79 of 176 threes last season and posted a 67.3% effective field goal percentage, a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 field goals. Green Bay transfer Caden Wilkins adds another option after hitting 40.3% from deep there.

Presbyterian plays the other way. It took threes on just 29.1% of its shots last season, 357th, and attacked inside instead. Its defense also protected the rim, blocking 12.2% of opponents' two-point tries (45th), which matters for a St. Thomas team that now has to manufacture interior scoring without its departed guards.

Extra possessions favor the Blue Hose

If Presbyterian wins, it likely wins on volume. The Blue Hose grabbed 33.9% of their own misses last season (84th). St. Thomas barely crashed the offensive glass, ranking 358th, but cleaned up its own boards well enough to rank 26th in defensive rebounding.

Ball security cuts the other way. Presbyterian turned it over on 19.4% of its possessions, 333rd nationally, while St. Thomas ranked 21st in avoiding giveaways. Herro, who averaged 1.7 steals last season, is the Tommies' best hope of turning that edge into easy points.

Presbyterian also got to the line often, ranking 57th in free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt). Neither team cashed in there: both shot under 69% from the stripe last season, and that could decide a game priced this tight.

Opening night stakes

Presbyterian has reason to treat this as more than a tune-up. Its second-place pick in the Big South poll is the best preseason ranking in program history, 11 letterwinners return from a team that reached the conference tournament semifinals for the first time, and this is the earliest season start in school history. Jaylen Peterson and Carl Parrish made the preseason All-Big South first team, with Triston Wilson on the second team.

St. Thomas has a bigger date circled. The Tommies visit Minnesota on Nov. 6, the schools' first meeting since 1934. No injuries or eligibility issues have surfaced for either team.

What the market is pricing

The books still trust the St. Thomas brand. Last season's adjusted ratings, which measure points per 100 possessions against the quality of opponents, put the Tommies 106th in net efficiency and Presbyterian 263rd. That gap reflects a St. Thomas roster that no longer exists.

The line has drifted toward the home team, from 3 to 2.5, and the total has slipped from 146.5 to 145.5. Last season, St. Thomas played at the faster pace, 84th in possessions per 40 minutes, while Presbyterian ranked 261st. Whose tempo wins out will shape the total as much as the shooting.