NFL DFS value picks for Sunday, November 15: what the betting lines say about the DraftKings main slate
Projections built from player prop lines show where DraftKings salaries look cheap relative to the market's expectations. Here are the top values, the best at each position, and the salary savers.
Where these projections come from
These numbers are not our opinion. Each projection is built from the betting market's player prop lines (passing yards, receptions, touchdowns and so on) and converted to full-PPR points, before DraftKings' 100- and 300-yard bonuses. The slate has 10 games and 123 priced players. Points per $1,000 of salary is just projected points divided by price. It shows where the market and DraftKings disagree on price. It does not tell you who will score the most, and it says nothing about ownership or how a lineup fits together.
The best values: quarterbacks dominate
The top of the value list is all quarterbacks. That is partly a pricing quirk: QBs project for more raw points than other positions, so the per-dollar math favors them. Tyler Shough of New Orleans leads at 3.57 points per $1,000, projected for 20.0 points at $5,600. His lines include 251.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns against Carolina, in a game with a 49.0 total. Josh Allen is next at 3.29, projected for 24.7 points at $7,500, which is the highest projection in the table. Buffalo's implied team total of 29.5 against the Jets backs that up. Deshaun Watson at $5,100 projects for 16.1 points, but Cleveland's implied total is 18.2, one of the lower ones on the slate. A good per-dollar number does not mean a good environment.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | CAR | $5,600 | 20.0 | 3.57 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 251.5, rush yds 16.5 |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | NYJ | $7,500 | 24.7 | 3.29 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 234.5, rush yds 27.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | HOU | $5,100 | 16.1 | 3.17 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 209, rush yds 27.5 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | SF | $6,400 | 20.1 | 3.14 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 266.5, rush yds 9.5 |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF | DAL | $7,000 | 22.0 | 3.14 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 255.5, rush yds 18.5 |
| Bryce Young | QB | CAR | NO | $5,800 | 17.9 | 3.09 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 245.5, rush yds 8.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | ATL | $6,000 | 18.3 | 3.04 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 243.5, rush yds 10.5 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | ATL | KC | $4,900 | 14.8 | 3.02 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 217.5, rush yds 6.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | CLE | $5,900 | 17.7 | 3.00 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 246, rush yds 8.5 |
| Drew Lock | QB | SEA | LV | $5,000 | 14.8 | 2.96 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 203.5, rush yds 6.5 |
Top plays at QB, RB, WR and TE
At quarterback, Dak Prescott ($6,400, 20.1 points) and Brock Purdy ($7,000, 22.0) both land at 3.14 per $1,000 in the highest-scoring game on the slate, Dallas and San Francisco, with a 55.5 total. Among running backs, Bijan Robinson tops the value list at 2.62 per $1,000 and 21.5 projected points, though his $8,200 salary is steep. Chuba Hubbard projects for 17.7 at $7,200. Ashton Jeanty is the cheaper option at $5,400, projected for 12.7. At receiver, Justin Jefferson leads at 2.43 per $1,000 with a 77.5 receiving yards line. Laquon Treadwell is the budget name at $3,000 and 7.2 points. CeeDee Lamb is the most expensive receiver listed at $8,800 and projects for 20.4. At tight end, Tyler Warren of Indianapolis leads at 2.81 per $1,000 and 12.3 points for $4,400. Colby Parkinson is close at 2.79 for just $3,000.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | KC | $8,200 | 21.5 | 2.62 | rec yds 28.5, rec 3.5, rush yds 87 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | NO | $7,200 | 17.7 | 2.46 | rec yds 18.5, rec 2.5, rush yds 79.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | DAL | $8,500 | 20.8 | 2.45 | rec yds 31.5, rec 4.5, rush yds 61.5 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | SEA | $5,400 | 12.7 | 2.34 | rec yds 25.5, rec 4.5, rush yds 34.5 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LA | ARI | $7,100 | 16.3 | 2.29 | rec yds 19.5, rec 2.5, rush yds 66.5 |
Receivers and tight ends worth a look
Receivers rarely top the overall value list, but the market still sees some separation. Drake London ($6,600, 15.8 points) and Jakobi Meyers ($4,200, 9.8 points) both project above 2.3 per $1,000. At tight end, the cheap options are thin but real. Dalton Schultz projects for 8.4 points at $3,400, and Kyle Pitts for 9.2 at $3,800. Treat these as ways to free up salary, not as sure things. A single touchdown swings a tight end's night more than any prop line can predict.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | GB | $6,800 | 16.5 | 2.43 | rec yds 77.5, rec 6.5 |
| Laquon Treadwell | WR | IND | MIA | $3,000 | 7.2 | 2.39 | rec yds 31, rec 2.5 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | KC | $6,600 | 15.8 | 2.39 | rec yds 72, rec 5.5 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | TEN | $4,200 | 9.8 | 2.33 | rec yds 41.5, rec 3.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | SF | $8,800 | 20.4 | 2.32 | rec yds 89, rec 7.5 |
Salary savers at $5,000 or less
If you want to spend big elsewhere, the cheapest useful options are mostly quarterbacks. Michael Penix Jr. ($4,900) and Drew Lock ($5,000) each project for 14.8 points. Geno Smith at $4,800 projects for 14.2. Outside QB, Warren at $4,400 and Travis Kelce at $4,700 (11.0 points) are the names on the list. Cheap does not mean safe. These projections are the market's central estimate, and low-salary players have wide ranges of outcomes. The market's view is information to weigh, not a pick.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | QB | SEA | LV | $5,000 | 14.8 | 2.96 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 203.5, rush yds 6.5 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | ATL | KC | $4,900 | 14.8 | 3.02 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 217.5, rush yds 6.5 |
| Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | BUF | $4,800 | 14.2 | 2.95 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 220.5, rush yds 4.5 |
| Cam Ward | QB | TEN | JAX | $4,800 | 13.9 | 2.90 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 201.5, rush yds 11.5 |
| Daniel Jones | QB | IND | MIA | $4,900 | 13.1 | 2.67 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 184, rush yds 7.5 |
| Fernando Mendoza | QB | LV | SEA | $4,600 | 12.7 | 2.77 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 180.5, rush yds 12.5 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | MIA | $4,400 | 12.3 | 2.81 | rec yds 44.5, rec 5.5 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | ATL | $4,700 | 11.0 | 2.35 | rec yds 47.5, rec 4.5 |
Top QB values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | CAR | $5,600 | 20.0 | 3.57 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 251.5, rush yds 16.5 |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | NYJ | $7,500 | 24.7 | 3.29 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 234.5, rush yds 27.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | HOU | $5,100 | 16.1 | 3.17 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 209, rush yds 27.5 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | SF | $6,400 | 20.1 | 3.14 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 266.5, rush yds 9.5 |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF | DAL | $7,000 | 22.0 | 3.14 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 255.5, rush yds 18.5 |
Top TE values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | MIA | $4,400 | 12.3 | 2.81 | rec yds 44.5, rec 5.5 |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | LA | ARI | $3,000 | 8.4 | 2.79 | rec yds 31.5, rec 3.5 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | CLE | $3,400 | 8.4 | 2.47 | rec yds 31.5, rec 3.5 |
| Greg Dulcich | TE | MIA | IND | $3,300 | 8.1 | 2.45 | rec yds 34.5, rec 3.5 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | KC | $3,800 | 9.2 | 2.43 | rec yds 36.5, rec 3.5 |
Questions
Who is the best value on the DraftKings main slate this Sunday?
By projected points per $1,000, Tyler Shough of New Orleans is first at 3.57, projected for 20.0 points at $5,600. That is the market's view of his price, not a guarantee of production.
Where do these DFS projections come from?
They come from betting-market player prop lines converted to full-PPR points, before DraftKings' 100- and 300-yard bonuses. They are not our own forecasts.
Which tight end offers the best value?
Tyler Warren of Indianapolis leads at 2.81 points per $1,000, projected for 12.3 points at $4,400. Colby Parkinson is close at 2.79 for $3,000.