NFL DFS value picks for Sunday, November 8: cheap QBs lead the board
Betting-market projections put several low-salary quarterbacks at the top of points per $1,000 on the DraftKings main slate. Here is what the numbers say and what they don't.
Where these projections come from
The projected points here are not our opinion. They are built from the betting market's prop lines (passing yards, touchdowns, receptions, receiving and rushing yards) and converted to full-PPR points. They do not include DraftKings' 100- and 300-yard bonuses. That makes them a read of what the market expects, not a prediction of what will happen. Prop lines can move before kickoff, and one big play can wreck any projection. We priced 155 players on this 11-game slate... but the packet lists 14 games, so check the slate's game list on DraftKings before you build.
The best values on the slate
Quarterbacks fill the top of the value list. Drew Lock (SEA) is at $4,000 with 15.6 projected points, or 3.89 per $1,000, the best rate in the table. Shedeur Sanders (CLE) is also $4,000 at 14.4 points, or 3.59. Malik Willis (MIA) is $5,100 for 17.9 points, and Patrick Mahomes (KC) is $6,100 for 20.4. Mahomes has a 2.5 touchdown pass line and KC carries the highest home implied total on the slate at 28.8, so he is a value without being a punt. Cheap does not mean safe. Lock and Sanders both have interception lines of 0.5 and modest passing-yard lines (204.5 and 191.5), so their projections lean on touchdowns.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | QB | SEA | ARI | $4,000 | 15.6 | 3.89 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 204.5, rush yds 5.5 |
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | CLE | NO | $4,000 | 14.4 | 3.59 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 191.5, rush yds 18.5 |
| Malik Willis | QB | MIA | DET | $5,100 | 17.9 | 3.51 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 207.5, rush yds 29.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | NYJ | $6,100 | 20.4 | 3.35 | int 0.5, pass td 2.5, pass yds 246.5, rush yds 11.5 |
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | NYG | PHI | $4,800 | 15.7 | 3.27 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 210.5, rush yds 16.5 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | LA | $6,000 | 19.5 | 3.26 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 214.5, rush yds 38 |
| Daniel Jones | QB | IND | DAL | $4,700 | 14.9 | 3.17 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 205.5, rush yds 8.5 |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF | LV | $6,800 | 21.4 | 3.15 | int 0.5, pass td 2.5, pass yds 247.5, rush yds 15.5 |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | SF | $5,300 | 16.4 | 3.09 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 247.5, rush yds 1.5 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | IND | $6,500 | 20.1 | 3.09 | int 0.5, pass td 2.5, pass yds 263.5, rush yds 5.5 |
Top plays at QB, RB, WR and TE
At running back, Jonah Coleman (DEN) leads the value list at $5,300 for 15.5 points (2.92 per $1,000). Christian McCaffrey (SF) costs $8,000 but projects to 22.9 points, and SF has the slate's top implied total at 30.8. Devin Singletary (NYG) is the cheaper option at $4,600 and 13.0 points. At wide receiver, Antonio Williams (WAS) is $4,100 for 11.2 points on a 48.5 receiving yards line. Puka Nacua (LA) is the pricey option at $8,800 with a projection of 21.9 and a receptions line of 8. At tight end, Greg Dulcich (MIA) is $3,100 for 9.1 points, and George Kittle (SF) is $6,000 for 17.5. Dulcich's projection rests on a 3.5 reception line, so it is thin.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonah Coleman | RB | DEN | CAR | $5,300 | 15.5 | 2.92 | rec yds 24.5, rec 3.5, rush yds 56 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | LV | $8,000 | 22.9 | 2.87 | rec yds 41.5, rec 5.5, rush yds 62.5 |
| Devin Singletary | RB | NYG | PHI | $4,600 | 13.0 | 2.82 | rec yds 14, rec 2.5, rush yds 55.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | GB | $6,100 | 15.8 | 2.59 | rec yds 23.5, rec 3.5, rush yds 56.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | MIA | $10,000 | 25.5 | 2.55 | rec yds 33.5, rec 4.5, rush yds 97.5 |
Wide receivers and tight ends
The wide receiver values after Williams and Nacua are KC Concepcion (CLE) at $4,600 and Adonai Mitchell (NYJ) at $4,500, projected for 10.8 and 10.4 points. Both are priced like low-end plays with receiving lines near 50 yards. Tight end is a cheap position on this slate. Dalton Schultz (HOU) is $3,200 for 9.0 points, and Tyler Warren (IND) is $4,600 for 11.5. Points per $1,000 favor the cheap options, but the market sees only a few catches for each.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Williams | WR | WAS | LA | $4,100 | 11.2 | 2.72 | rec yds 48.5, rec 4.5 |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LA | WAS | $8,800 | 21.9 | 2.49 | rec yds 92.5, rec 8 |
| KC Concepcion | WR | CLE | NO | $4,600 | 10.8 | 2.34 | rec yds 46.5, rec 4.5 |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | NYJ | KC | $4,500 | 10.4 | 2.32 | rec yds 50, rec 3.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | IND | $8,300 | 18.8 | 2.26 | rec yds 82.5, rec 6.5 |
Salary savers at $5,000 or less
If you want to spend big elsewhere, the cheap quarterbacks are the obvious route. J.J. McCarthy (NYG) projects to 15.7 points at $4,800, just ahead of Lock's 15.6 at $4,000. Daniel Jones (IND) is $4,700 for 14.9, and Justin Herbert (LAC) is $5,000 for 14.9. Herbert's touchdown pass line is only 0.5, and LAC's implied total is 17.2, so his projection leans on yards. The projections show where the market sees value, not who will score. Treat them as one input alongside lineup news.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | NYG | PHI | $4,800 | 15.7 | 3.27 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 210.5, rush yds 16.5 |
| Drew Lock | QB | SEA | ARI | $4,000 | 15.6 | 3.89 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 204.5, rush yds 5.5 |
| Daniel Jones | QB | IND | DAL | $4,700 | 14.9 | 3.17 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 205.5, rush yds 8.5 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | HOU | $5,000 | 14.9 | 2.99 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 206.5, rush yds 21.5 |
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | CLE | NO | $4,000 | 14.4 | 3.59 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 191.5, rush yds 18.5 |
| Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | KC | $4,900 | 14.2 | 2.89 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 217.5, rush yds 6.5 |
| Devin Singletary | RB | NYG | PHI | $4,600 | 13.0 | 2.82 | rec yds 14, rec 2.5, rush yds 55.5 |
| Gardner Minshew | QB | ARI | SEA | $4,500 | 12.3 | 2.74 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 196.5, rush yds 5.5 |
Top QB values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | QB | SEA | ARI | $4,000 | 15.6 | 3.89 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 204.5, rush yds 5.5 |
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | CLE | NO | $4,000 | 14.4 | 3.59 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 191.5, rush yds 18.5 |
| Malik Willis | QB | MIA | DET | $5,100 | 17.9 | 3.51 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 207.5, rush yds 29.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | NYJ | $6,100 | 20.4 | 3.35 | int 0.5, pass td 2.5, pass yds 246.5, rush yds 11.5 |
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | NYG | PHI | $4,800 | 15.7 | 3.27 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 210.5, rush yds 16.5 |
Top TE values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dulcich | TE | MIA | DET | $3,100 | 9.1 | 2.94 | rec yds 38, rec 3.5 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | LV | $6,000 | 17.5 | 2.92 | rec yds 70.5, rec 5.5 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | LAC | $3,200 | 9.0 | 2.82 | rec yds 34.5, rec 3.5 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | DAL | $4,600 | 11.5 | 2.51 | rec yds 42, rec 5.5 |
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | WAS | LA | $3,600 | 8.9 | 2.48 | rec yds 36, rec 3.5 |
Questions
Who is the best value QB on the DraftKings main slate this week?
By projected points per $1,000, Drew Lock (SEA) leads at 3.89 on a $4,000 salary, followed by Shedeur Sanders (CLE) at 3.59. That ranking shows the market's view, not a guarantee.
Where do these DFS projections come from?
They are converted from betting-market prop lines into full-PPR points, before DraftKings' 100- and 300-yard bonuses. They reflect the market, not Mako Bets' opinion.
Which cheap tight ends project best?
Greg Dulcich (MIA) is $3,100 for 9.1 projected points and Dalton Schultz (HOU) is $3,200 for 9.0. Both depend on a 3.5 reception line.