NFL DFS value on the DraftKings main slate, Sunday, November 1: where the betting lines point
Projections built from player prop lines show quarterbacks dominating points per $1,000 this week. Here is what the market sees, what it doesn't, and where the cheap salary is.
Where these projections come from
The projections below are not our opinion. They come from the betting market: player prop lines (passing yards, touchdowns, receptions, rushing yards and so on) converted into full-PPR points. They do not include DraftKings' 100- and 300-yard bonuses. That makes them a read of what sportsbooks expect, not a forecast of what will happen. Prop lines can move before kickoff, and injury news can change a player's role. Treat every number here as information, not a pick.
Best values: quarterbacks fill the list
The top ten values on the 159-player slate are all quarterbacks. That likely reflects how the scoring works: passers get points for yards and touchdowns, so projected points run high relative to salary. Dak Prescott ($6,300) leads at 3.47 points per $1,000, with a projection of 21.8. The lines behind it include a pass touchdown line of 2.5 and 270.5 passing yards. His game, ARI at DAL, has a 54.5 total, tied with BAL at BUF for the highest on the slate, and Dallas carries an implied 30.8. Jacoby Brissett ($5,700) is second at 3.35 points per $1,000 on the other side of that game. Josh Allen ($7,700) projects for 25.5, the highest total in this table, at 3.31 per $1,000. A high value score doesn't mean a high floor. These are market averages, and a quarterback can miss them by a lot in a single game.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | ARI | $6,300 | 21.8 | 3.47 | int 0.5, pass td 2.5, pass yds 270.5, rush yds 8.5 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | DAL | $5,700 | 19.1 | 3.35 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 256.5, rush yds 9.5 |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | BAL | $7,700 | 25.5 | 3.31 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 247.5, rush yds 35.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | IND | $6,200 | 20.1 | 3.24 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 240, rush yds 11.5 |
| Malik Willis | QB | MIA | NE | $4,900 | 15.8 | 3.23 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 184.5, rush yds 33.5 |
| Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | DET | $5,600 | 17.9 | 3.19 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 224.5, rush yds 24.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | ATL | $5,200 | 16.5 | 3.18 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 213.5, rush yds 17.5 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | LA | $5,000 | 15.8 | 3.17 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 205.5, rush yds 24 |
| Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | LV | $5,200 | 16.0 | 3.07 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 225.5, rush yds 6.5 |
| Drake Maye | QB | NE | MIA | $6,500 | 19.7 | 3.03 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 233.5, rush yds 23.5 |
Top plays by position: QB, RB, WR, TE
At quarterback, Trevor Lawrence ($6,200, 20.1 projected) and Malik Willis ($4,900, 15.8) round out the top five. Willis has a pass touchdown line of just 0.5, so much of his projection leans on his rushing yards line of 33.5. At running back, Jonah Coleman ($4,300) leads at 2.81 points per $1,000 with 12.1 projected. Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600, 14.8) and Chase Brown ($6,300, 16.4) follow. Brown's Cincinnati team has an implied total of 29.5 against Tennessee. At wide receiver, Wan'Dale Robinson ($4,200) tops the list at 2.79 per $1,000, backed by a 5.5 reception line. Puka Nacua ($8,600) has the highest projection of any receiver listed at 21.7. At tight end, Hunter Henry ($4,300) leads at 2.70 per $1,000. Trey McBride ($7,400) projects for 19.2, the most in this group, on a 7.5 reception line.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonah Coleman | RB | DEN | KC | $4,300 | 12.1 | 2.81 | rec yds 21.5, rec 2.5, rush yds 45.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | MIA | $5,600 | 14.8 | 2.64 | rec yds 21.5, rec 2.5, rush yds 52.5 |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | TEN | $6,300 | 16.4 | 2.60 | rec yds 20.5, rec 3.5, rush yds 58.5 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | IND | $5,900 | 14.5 | 2.47 | rec yds 15, rec 2.5, rush yds 65.5 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | TB | $8,500 | 20.6 | 2.43 | rec yds 30.5, rec 3.5, rush yds 80.5 |
Salary savers at $5,000 or less
Cheap options with real market support are limited. Justin Herbert ($5,000, 15.8) and Willis ($4,900, 15.8) share the highest projection among the savers. Below quarterback, Coleman at running back ($4,300, 12.1), Robinson at receiver ($4,200, 11.7) and Henry at tight end ($4,300, 11.6) are the best-projected cheap options in the packet. Travis Kelce ($5,000) projects for 10.7, or 2.15 per $1,000, the lowest value rate in this group. That is a reminder that salary reflects name and past production, not only the current market. Cheap players carry wider ranges. A low salary saves cap room but doesn't make a projection more reliable.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | LA | $5,000 | 15.8 | 3.17 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 205.5, rush yds 24 |
| Malik Willis | QB | MIA | NE | $4,900 | 15.8 | 3.23 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 184.5, rush yds 33.5 |
| Cam Ward | QB | TEN | CIN | $4,600 | 12.8 | 2.78 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 191.5, rush yds 7.5 |
| Daniel Jones | QB | IND | JAX | $4,700 | 12.5 | 2.66 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 190.5, rush yds 8.5 |
| Jonah Coleman | RB | DEN | KC | $4,300 | 12.1 | 2.81 | rec yds 21.5, rec 2.5, rush yds 45.5 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | CIN | $4,200 | 11.7 | 2.79 | rec yds 48, rec 5.5 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | NE | MIA | $4,300 | 11.6 | 2.70 | rec yds 45, rec 4.5 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | DEN | $5,000 | 10.7 | 2.15 | rec yds 47, rec 4.5 |
Top QB values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | ARI | $6,300 | 21.8 | 3.47 | int 0.5, pass td 2.5, pass yds 270.5, rush yds 8.5 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | DAL | $5,700 | 19.1 | 3.35 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 256.5, rush yds 9.5 |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | BAL | $7,700 | 25.5 | 3.31 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 247.5, rush yds 35.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | IND | $6,200 | 20.1 | 3.24 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 240, rush yds 11.5 |
| Malik Willis | QB | MIA | NE | $4,900 | 15.8 | 3.23 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 184.5, rush yds 33.5 |
Top WR values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | CIN | $4,200 | 11.7 | 2.79 | rec yds 48, rec 5.5 |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LA | LAC | $8,600 | 21.7 | 2.53 | rec yds 93.5, rec 7.5 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | TEN | $7,700 | 19.1 | 2.47 | rec yds 80.5, rec 6.5 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | BUF | $7,200 | 17.6 | 2.45 | rec yds 84.5, rec 6.5 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | TB | $7,000 | 16.9 | 2.42 | rec yds 79.5, rec 6.5 |
Top TE values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | TE | NE | MIA | $4,300 | 11.6 | 2.70 | rec yds 45, rec 4.5 |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | DAL | $7,400 | 19.2 | 2.59 | rec yds 74.5, rec 7.5 |
| Brenton Strange | TE | JAX | IND | $4,000 | 10.3 | 2.57 | rec yds 40.5, rec 3.5 |
| Cade Otton | TE | TB | ATL | $3,400 | 8.5 | 2.50 | rec yds 33.5, rec 3.5 |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | LA | LAC | $3,800 | 9.4 | 2.49 | rec yds 36.5, rec 3.5 |
Questions
Are these DFS projections picks?
No. They are the betting market's view, converted from player prop lines into full-PPR points, and they can change before kickoff.
Who is the best value on the DraftKings main slate?
By points per $1,000, Dak Prescott ($6,300) is first at 3.47, with a projection of 21.8. Value rate says nothing about floor or ceiling.
Do the projections include DraftKings yardage bonuses?
No. They are full-PPR points before DraftKings' 100- and 300-yard bonuses.