NFL DFS value for Sunday, October 25: quarterbacks lead the points-per-dollar board
The betting market's projections for the DraftKings main slate, sorted by points per $1,000, with what they do and don't tell you.
Where these projections come from
The projections here are not our opinion. They are built from player prop lines at sportsbooks, which is the market's view of each player's likely output. We convert those lines into full-PPR points, before DraftKings' 100- and 300-yard bonuses. The packet prices 135 players across 10 games. A projection is an average expectation, not a forecast of what happens Sunday. Props move, and so does the news that drives them, so check lines again before lock.
The best values: quarterbacks dominate
The top of the value board is mostly quarterbacks. C.J. Stroud (HOU, $5,700) leads at 3.44 points per $1,000, projected for 19.6 points against the Giants. Houston has the highest implied team total on the slate at 26.5. Jordan Love (GB, $6,000) projects for 20.1, the highest QB projection in this group, at 3.35 per $1,000. The Packers-Lions game carries the biggest total on the slate at 53.5. Bo Nix (DEN, $5,000) is at 3.34 per $1,000. Cade Otton (TB, $3,100) is the only non-QB in the top 10 at 3.17. Cheap quarterbacks score well on this metric partly because their salaries are low, not because the market loves them. High value per dollar does not mean a high ceiling, and it does not mean the player is the right fit for your lineup.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | NYG | $5,700 | 19.6 | 3.44 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 255.5, rush yds 9.5 |
| Jordan Love | QB | GB | DET | $6,000 | 20.1 | 3.35 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 281.5, rush yds 7 |
| Bo Nix | QB | DEN | ARI | $5,000 | 16.7 | 3.34 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 219.5, rush yds 10.5 |
| Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | IND | $5,400 | 17.7 | 3.28 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 208, rush yds 25.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | TEN | $5,200 | 17.0 | 3.27 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 208, rush yds 29.5 |
| Malik Willis | QB | MIA | NYJ | $4,700 | 15.0 | 3.19 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 183.5, rush yds 30.5 |
| Bryce Young | QB | CAR | TB | $5,900 | 18.8 | 3.18 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 253.5, rush yds 10.5 |
| Cade Otton | TE | TB | CAR | $3,100 | 9.8 | 3.17 | rec yds 40.5, rec 3.5 |
| Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | MIA | $5,100 | 15.7 | 3.07 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 221, rush yds 6.5 |
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | NYG | HOU | $4,800 | 14.7 | 3.05 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 203.5, rush yds 23.5 |
Top plays by position: QB, RB, WR and TE
At running back, Christian McCaffrey (SF, $7,600) has the best value at 2.94 per $1,000 and projects for 22.4 points. Bijan Robinson (ATL, $8,500) projects for 23.0, and Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, $9,800) for 26.0, the highest of the RBs listed, though at a steeper price at 2.65 per $1,000. At wide receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, $7,800) projects for 19.8 on a 7.5 reception line. Matthew Golden (GB, $6,000) is at 15.2. Chris Godwin Jr. (TB, $4,300) offers 2.56 per $1,000. At tight end, George Kittle (SF, $5,700) projects for 15.9, the highest TE projection listed, at 2.80 per $1,000. Sam LaPorta (DET, $4,800) and Tucker Kraft (GB, $4,700) are close behind at 12.6 and 12.1. The QB table is below. The RB, WR and TE tables follow in order.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | NYG | $5,700 | 19.6 | 3.44 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 255.5, rush yds 9.5 |
| Jordan Love | QB | GB | DET | $6,000 | 20.1 | 3.35 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 281.5, rush yds 7 |
| Bo Nix | QB | DEN | ARI | $5,000 | 16.7 | 3.34 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 219.5, rush yds 10.5 |
| Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | IND | $5,400 | 17.7 | 3.28 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 208, rush yds 25.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | TEN | $5,200 | 17.0 | 3.27 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 208, rush yds 29.5 |
Running backs, receivers and tight ends
RB values top out below the QB values, with McCaffrey at 2.94 against Stroud's 3.44. That gap reflects position salary structure, so compare players within a position, not across them.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | ATL | $7,600 | 22.4 | 2.94 | rec yds 45, rec 5.5, rush yds 60.5 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | SF | $8,500 | 23.0 | 2.71 | rec yds 29.5, rec 3.5, rush yds 88.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | GB | $9,800 | 26.0 | 2.65 | rec yds 39.5, rec 4.5, rush yds 93.5 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LA | LV | $7,000 | 18.3 | 2.62 | rec yds 27.5, rec 3.5, rush yds 68 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | LA | $6,500 | 16.2 | 2.49 | rec yds 25.5, rec 3.5, rush yds 54.5 |
Cheap salary savers
Among players at $5,000 or less, Malik Willis (MIA, $4,700) projects for 15.0 points, with a pass TD line of just 0.5 and a rushing yards line of 30.5. That rushing line is part of why he projects well. J.J. McCarthy (NYG, $4,800) projects for 14.7. The Giants have the lowest implied total on the slate at 16.0, which is a real risk to that projection. On the skill side, Godwin at $4,300 projects for 11.0, and LaPorta and Kraft are the cheap TEs worth a look at 12.6 and 12.1. These are market-implied numbers, not picks. Low salaries come with wide outcomes.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | QB | DEN | ARI | $5,000 | 16.7 | 3.34 | int 0.5, pass td 1.5, pass yds 219.5, rush yds 10.5 |
| Malik Willis | QB | MIA | NYJ | $4,700 | 15.0 | 3.19 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 183.5, rush yds 30.5 |
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | NYG | HOU | $4,800 | 14.7 | 3.05 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 203.5, rush yds 23.5 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | GB | $4,800 | 12.6 | 2.62 | rec yds 49.5, rec 4.5 |
| Cam Ward | QB | TEN | CLE | $4,600 | 12.6 | 2.74 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 182.5, rush yds 9.5 |
| Daniel Jones | QB | IND | MIN | $4,900 | 12.4 | 2.52 | int 0.5, pass td 0.5, pass yds 187.5, rush yds 7.5 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | DET | $4,700 | 12.1 | 2.58 | rec yds 49.5, rec 4.5 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | TB | CAR | $4,300 | 11.0 | 2.56 | rec yds 44.5, rec 4.5 |
Top WR values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Hurst III | WR | TB | CAR | $3,000 | 8.0 | 2.66 | rec yds 36.5, rec 2.5 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | TB | CAR | $4,300 | 11.0 | 2.56 | rec yds 44.5, rec 4.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | GB | $7,800 | 19.8 | 2.54 | rec yds 78.5, rec 7.5 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | DET | $6,000 | 15.2 | 2.53 | rec yds 73.5, rec 5.5 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | TB | $6,100 | 14.5 | 2.37 | rec yds 66.5, rec 5.5 |
Top TE values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | Lines behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | TE | TB | CAR | $3,100 | 9.8 | 3.17 | rec yds 40.5, rec 3.5 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | ATL | $5,700 | 15.9 | 2.80 | rec yds 69.5, rec 5.5 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | GB | $4,800 | 12.6 | 2.62 | rec yds 49.5, rec 4.5 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | DET | $4,700 | 12.1 | 2.58 | rec yds 49.5, rec 4.5 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | HOU | $5,300 | 12.6 | 2.37 | rec yds 52.5, rec 5.5 |
Questions
How are these DFS projections calculated?
They come from sportsbook prop lines such as passing yards, receptions and touchdowns, converted to full-PPR points before DraftKings' 100- and 300-yard bonuses. They reflect the betting market's view, not our own.
Who is the best value quarterback on the DraftKings main slate?
By points per $1,000, C.J. Stroud leads at 3.44 on a $5,700 salary and 19.6 projected points. That ranks him first on value, not necessarily as the best play for your lineup.
Are there good cheap options at $5,000 or less?
The projections show Bo Nix at $5,000 for 16.7 points and Malik Willis at $4,700 for 15.0. Cheap players carry wider ranges of outcomes, so treat them as information, not guarantees.