Where the money is: Kalshi NFL betting splits for Sunday, November 15
Kalshi bettors only, not every sportsbook. The biggest gap between bets and dollars is on totals, and it is information, not a pick.
The clearest gap: bets on the Over, money on the Under
These numbers cover Kalshi bettors only, not every sportsbook. "% of bets" counts orders that took a price. "% of money" counts dollars paid. When the two disagree, a few large orders are usually outweighing many small ones. The widest gaps are on totals. In Patriots @ Lions, 72% of bets were on the Over 49.5, but only 22% of the money. The Under took 78% of the money, though that is just $10,455 in total. Jaguars @ Titans is similar. The Over 46.5 and Under 46.5 each drew 50% of bets, yet the Under took 96.5% of the money. Treat these as thin markets. A single order can swing the percentages, and the split does not show which side is right.
| Game | Market | Side | % of bets | % of money | Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions | moneyline | New England Patriots | 53% | 52% | $138,690 |
| New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions | moneyline | Detroit Lions | 47% | 48% | $129,658 |
| New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions | spread | Detroit Lions -2.5 | 82% | 94% | $75,390 |
| New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions | spread | New England Patriots +2.5 | 18% | 6% | $4,697 |
| New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions | total | Over 49.5 | 72% | 22% | $2,947 |
| New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions | total | Under 49.5 | 28% | 78% | $10,455 |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons | moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs | 79% | 87% | $172,899 |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons | moneyline | Atlanta Falcons | 21% | 13% | $25,394 |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons | spread | Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 | 73% | 62% | $25,216 |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons | spread | Atlanta Falcons +3.5 | 27% | 38% | $15,684 |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons | total | Over 46.5 | 83% | 92% | $7,601 |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons | total | Under 46.5 | 17% | 8% | $688 |
| Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns | moneyline | Houston Texans | 42% | 58% | $45,770 |
| Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns | moneyline | Cleveland Browns | 58% | 42% | $33,486 |
| Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns | spread | Houston Texans -4.5 | 62% | 42% | $6,809 |
| Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns | spread | Cleveland Browns +4.5 | 38% | 58% | $9,566 |
| Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns | total | Over 40.5 | 68% | 94% | $95,754 |
| Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns | total | Under 40.5 | 32% | 6% | $6,670 |
| Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers | moneyline | Minnesota Vikings | 52% | 60% | $405,547 |
| Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers | moneyline | Green Bay Packers | 48% | 40% | $267,582 |
| Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers | spread | Green Bay Packers -3.5 | 55% | 27% | $56,209 |
| Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers | spread | Minnesota Vikings +3.5 | 45% | 73% | $149,073 |
| Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers | total | Over 41.5 | 59% | 97% | $310,498 |
| Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers | total | Under 41.5 | 41% | 3% | $8,769 |
| Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts | moneyline | Miami Dolphins | 55% | 10% | $48,959 |
| Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts | moneyline | Indianapolis Colts | 45% | 90% | $435,452 |
| Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts | spread | Indianapolis Colts -4.5 | 42% | 42% | $3,238 |
| Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts | spread | Miami Dolphins +4.5 | 58% | 58% | $4,552 |
| Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts | total | Over 36.5 | 75% | 98% | $2,302 |
| Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts | total | Under 36.5 | 25% | 2% | $48 |
| Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints | moneyline | Carolina Panthers | 66% | 61% | $75,583 |
| Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints | moneyline | New Orleans Saints | 34% | 39% | $48,175 |
| Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints | spread | New Orleans Saints -2.5 | 35% | 49% | $6,478 |
| Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints | spread | Carolina Panthers +2.5 | 65% | 51% | $6,765 |
| Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints | total | Over 48.5 | 73% | 60% | $1,131 |
| Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints | total | Under 48.5 | 27% | 40% | $766 |
| Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets | moneyline | Buffalo Bills | 80% | 94% | $372,475 |
| Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets | moneyline | New York Jets | 20% | 6% | $22,755 |
| Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets | spread | Buffalo Bills -7.5 | 77% | 78% | $14,010 |
| Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets | spread | New York Jets +7.5 | 23% | 22% | $4,042 |
| Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets | total | Over 50.5 | 54% | 15% | $2,565 |
| Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets | total | Under 50.5 | 46% | 85% | $14,256 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans | moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars | 70% | 89% | $199,160 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans | moneyline | Tennessee Titans | 30% | 11% | $25,655 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans | spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -10.5 | 69% | 96% | $226,617 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans | spread | Tennessee Titans +10.5 | 31% | 4% | $8,918 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans | total | Over 46.5 | 50% | 4% | $423 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans | total | Under 46.5 | 50% | 96% | $11,621 |
| Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | moneyline | Los Angeles Rams | 58% | 89% | $169,996 |
| Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | moneyline | Arizona Cardinals | 42% | 11% | $20,491 |
| Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | spread | Los Angeles Rams -9.5 | 53% | 75% | $16,404 |
| Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | spread | Arizona Cardinals +9.5 | 47% | 25% | $5,560 |
| Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | total | Over 38.5 | 37% | 9% | $2,540 |
| Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | total | Under 38.5 | 63% | 91% | $27,154 |
| Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders | moneyline | Seattle Seahawks | 54% | 82% | $440,200 |
| Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders | moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders | 46% | 18% | $98,300 |
| Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders | spread | Seattle Seahawks -6.5 | 75% | 86% | $22,018 |
| Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders | spread | Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 | 25% | 14% | $3,737 |
| Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders | total | Over 40.5 | 50% | 61% | $2,090 |
| Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders | total | Under 40.5 | 50% | 39% | $1,312 |
| San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys | moneyline | San Francisco 49ers | 71% | 77% | $506,156 |
| San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys | moneyline | Dallas Cowboys | 29% | 23% | $151,444 |
| San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys | spread | San Francisco 49ers -4.5 | 80% | 73% | $72,309 |
| San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys | spread | Dallas Cowboys +4.5 | 20% | 27% | $27,276 |
| San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys | total | Over 55.5 | 63% | 57% | $4,695 |
| San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys | total | Under 55.5 | 37% | 43% | $3,585 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals | moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers | 66% | 41% | $88,467 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals | moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals | 34% | 59% | $128,061 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals | spread | Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 | 44% | 73% | $44,164 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals | spread | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 | 56% | 27% | $16,051 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals | total | Over 49.5 | 67% | 81% | $2,589 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals | total | Under 49.5 | 33% | 19% | $601 |
| Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens | moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers | 57% | 50% | $37,317 |
| Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens | moneyline | Baltimore Ravens | 43% | 50% | $36,990 |
| Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens | spread | Baltimore Ravens -4.5 | 59% | 53% | $2,407 |
| Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens | spread | Los Angeles Chargers +4.5 | 41% | 47% | $2,115 |
| Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens | total | Over 38.5 | 57% | 73% | $1,702 |
| Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens | total | Under 38.5 | 43% | 27% | $627 |
| Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans | moneyline | Indianapolis Colts | 58% | 43% | $1,921 |
| Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans | moneyline | Houston Texans | 42% | 57% | $2,554 |
Moneyline gaps worth a look
The Dolphins @ Colts moneyline shows the same pattern. The Dolphins drew 55.2% of bets but 10.1% of the money, while the Colts took 89.9% of the money. That is $435,452 on the Colts, so this gap is on a much deeper market than the totals above. The Rams @ Cardinals moneyline is also lopsided: 58% of bets on the Rams, 89% of the money. More bets on one side with more money on the other means the bigger orders went one way and the smaller ones went the other. It shows where the dollars landed, not why.
The biggest single bets
The largest bet in the packet is $229,593 on the Colts to win, at 57¢. The same game also has a $138,087 bet on the Colts at 66¢. That fits the money split above. Seahawks @ Raiders has several large orders: $224,285 on Seattle to win at 68¢, $159,977 on the Under 42.5, and $159,731 on the Under 43.5. Both Under bets were at 53¢. Two large orders at nearly the same size and price on adjacent lines could be one bettor working a position, but the data does not say. Vikings @ Packers had two big Over 41.5 bets, $156,000 at 52¢ and $144,053 at 48¢. That matches the 97% of money on the Over in that game. A big bet shows conviction from one account. It does not show that the account is skilled.
| Game | Bet | Size | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts to win | $229,593 | 57¢ |
| Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders | Seattle Seahawks to win | $224,285 | 68¢ |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans | Jacksonville Jaguars -10.5 | $214,783 | 51¢ |
| Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders | Under 42.5 | $159,977 | 53¢ |
| Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders | Under 43.5 | $159,731 | 53¢ |
| Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers | Over 41.5 | $156,000 | 52¢ |
| Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders | Seattle Seahawks -4.5 | $153,000 | 51¢ |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons | Over 45.5 | $150,404 | 50¢ |
| Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers | Over 41.5 | $144,053 | 48¢ |
| Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts to win | $138,087 | 66¢ |
Proven Polymarket accounts
This table appears only where at least 5 proven Polymarket accounts hold a side. It is a small group, so read it as a loose signal. In Commanders @ Giants, 8 accounts (80%) are on the Commanders spread, while the moneyline is nearly split at 6 and 7 accounts. In Bills @ Jets, 6 accounts (86%) are on the Jets moneyline. Kalshi money in that game went the other way, with 94% on the Bills. In Rams @ Cardinals, proven accounts lean toward the Rams moneyline (80%) and the Under (80%), counts of 4 each. With counts this small, one account changes the share a lot. These are not picks.
| Game | Market | Side | Accounts | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders @ New York Giants | moneyline | Washington Commanders | 6 | 46% |
| Washington Commanders @ New York Giants | moneyline | New York Giants | 7 | 54% |
| Washington Commanders @ New York Giants | spread | Washington Commanders | 8 | 80% |
| Washington Commanders @ New York Giants | spread | New York Giants | 2 | 20% |
| Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers | spread | Minnesota Vikings | 6 | 67% |
| Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers | spread | Green Bay Packers | 3 | 33% |
| Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets | moneyline | Buffalo Bills | 1 | 14% |
| Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets | moneyline | New York Jets | 6 | 86% |
| Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | moneyline | Los Angeles Rams | 4 | 80% |
| Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | moneyline | Arizona Cardinals | 1 | 20% |
| Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | total | over | 1 | 20% |
| Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals | total | under | 4 | 80% |
Questions
What does the gap between % of bets and % of money mean?
It means the average order size differs by side. For example, the Dolphins drew 55.2% of bets but 10.1% of the money in Dolphins @ Colts, so bigger orders were on the Colts.
Does heavy money on one side mean that side will win?
No. The split shows where Kalshi bettors put their dollars, not who is likely to win. Some of these markets are small, like the $423 on the Over 46.5 in Jaguars @ Titans.
Are these splits for every sportsbook?
No. They cover Kalshi bettors only, so they may differ from what bettors at other sportsbooks are doing.