NBA DFS picks for Friday, November 13: DraftKings value plays
Cheap options from ATL, CLE, MEM and CHI top the points-per-$1,000 board, and several key players are ruled out. Here is what the projections say and what they leave out.
Best values on the main slate
Jalen Wilson (ATL, SF, $3,000) leads the board at 6.19 projected points per $1,000, with 18.6 projected points. That number comes from our usage model, not a posted prop line, so it carries more uncertainty. His last-10 minutes average is 23.9. Cormac Ryan (MIL, PG, $3,000) is next at 5.82, also model-based, with 26.2 recent minutes. Both are cheap, but the model is guessing at their role. The most solid values come from prop lines. Jaylon Tyson (CLE, $4,200) projects at 23.9 points, or 5.69 per $1,000. Jarrett Allen (CLE, C, $5,700) projects at 31.7, or 5.55 per $1,000. Books posted points, rebounds and assists for both. ATL at CHI has the highest total on the slate at 246.0, which helps explain why so many Hawks and Bulls show up here. A high total is not a guarantee of fantasy points.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Wilson | SF | ATL | CHI | $3,000 | 18.6 | 6.19 | model | — |
| Cormac Ryan | PG | MIL | ORL | $3,000 | 17.5 | 5.82 | model | — |
| Jaylon Tyson | SG/SF | CLE | MIA | $4,200 | 23.9 | 5.69 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 11.5, reb 4.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Jarrett Allen | C | CLE | MIA | $5,700 | 31.7 | 5.55 | prop lines | ast 0.5, pts 14.5, reb 8.5 |
| Isaiah Stewart | PF/C | MEM | NO | $3,900 | 21.3 | 5.45 | mixed | pts 10.5, reb 4.5 |
| CJ McCollum | PG/SG | ATL | CHI | $5,300 | 28.7 | 5.41 | mixed | pts 14.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Anthony Black | PG/SG | ORL | MIL | $7,200 | 38.4 | 5.34 | model | — |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | SG/SF | IND | NY | $4,200 | 22.4 | 5.34 | mixed | pts 10.65, reb 3.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Jerami Grant | SF/PF | MEM | NO | $4,100 | 21.8 | 5.31 | mixed | pts 11.5, reb 2.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Jalen Smith | C | CHI | ATL | $5,900 | 31.0 | 5.25 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 14.07, reb 7.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Patrick Williams | PF | CHI | ATL | $4,000 | 20.8 | 5.21 | mixed | pts 8.5, reb 2.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Matas Buzelis | SF/PF | CHI | ATL | $5,800 | 30.1 | 5.20 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 17.5, reb 4.5, tpm 1.5 |
Top value at PG and SG
At PG, Ryan is the cheapest option. If you want more salary, CJ McCollum (ATL, $5,300) projects at 28.7 points and 5.41 per $1,000 from a mix of prop lines and model. Anthony Black (ORL, $7,200) projects at 38.4 points, but entirely from our model, with 29.1 recent minutes. At SG, Tyson is the top value. Kelly Oubre Jr. (IND, $4,200) projects at 22.4 points and 5.34 per $1,000. Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ATL, $6,900) has a points line of 23.47 and projects at 35.6.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cormac Ryan | PG | MIL | ORL | $3,000 | 17.5 | 5.82 | model | — |
| CJ McCollum | PG/SG | ATL | CHI | $5,300 | 28.7 | 5.41 | mixed | pts 14.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Anthony Black | PG/SG | ORL | MIL | $7,200 | 38.4 | 5.34 | model | — |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | PG/SG | ATL | CHI | $6,900 | 35.6 | 5.16 | prop lines | ast 2.5, pts 23.47, reb 2.5, tpm 3.5 |
| Dyson Daniels | PG/SF | ATL | CHI | $6,600 | 33.7 | 5.10 | prop lines | ast 5.5, pts 10.5, reb 6.5, tpm -0.5 |
Top value at SF, PF and C
At SF, Wilson tops the list, followed by Tyson and Oubre. Matas Buzelis (CHI, $5,800) is the prop-line-backed option, at 30.1 projected points. At PF, Isaiah Stewart (MEM, PF/C, $3,900) leads at 5.45 per $1,000, but he averages only 17.9 recent minutes, so his projection depends on that role holding. Jerami Grant (MEM, $4,100) and Patrick Williams (CHI, $4,000) follow, both projected from mixed sources. At C, Allen leads at 5.55, followed by Stewart and Jalen Smith (CHI, $5,900), who projects at 31.0 from prop lines.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Allen | C | CLE | MIA | $5,700 | 31.7 | 5.55 | prop lines | ast 0.5, pts 14.5, reb 8.5 |
| Isaiah Stewart | PF/C | MEM | NO | $3,900 | 21.3 | 5.45 | mixed | pts 10.5, reb 4.5 |
| Jalen Smith | C | CHI | ATL | $5,900 | 31.0 | 5.25 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 14.07, reb 7.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Myles Turner | C | MIL | ORL | $5,000 | 25.5 | 5.10 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 9.5, reb 4.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | PF/C | NY | IND | $8,800 | 43.8 | 4.98 | prop lines | ast 3.5, pts 20.5, reb 12.5, tpm 0.5 |
Cheap salary savers
Among players at $4,500 or less, Tyson has the highest projection at 23.9 points. Oubre is next at 22.4, then Meleek Thomas (CLE, $4,500) at 22.2. Three Grizzlies show up in this group: Grant, Stewart and Jaylen Wells ($4,400). They share the same game, MEM at NO, which has a 237.5 total. If one of them hits, that doesn't mean the others will. These are projections from market lines, not picks. Cheap players tend to have wide ranges, and minutes are the main risk.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylon Tyson | SG/SF | CLE | MIA | $4,200 | 23.9 | 5.69 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 11.5, reb 4.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | SG/SF | IND | NY | $4,200 | 22.4 | 5.34 | mixed | pts 10.65, reb 3.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Meleek Thomas | SG/SF | CLE | MIA | $4,500 | 22.2 | 4.94 | prop lines | ast 0.5, pts 11.5, reb 3.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Jerami Grant | SF/PF | MEM | NO | $4,100 | 21.8 | 5.31 | mixed | pts 11.5, reb 2.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Isaiah Stewart | PF/C | MEM | NO | $3,900 | 21.3 | 5.45 | mixed | pts 10.5, reb 4.5 |
| Jaylen Wells | SF | MEM | NO | $4,400 | 21.1 | 4.80 | mixed | pts 11.5, reb 2.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Patrick Williams | PF | CHI | ATL | $4,000 | 20.8 | 5.21 | mixed | pts 8.5, reb 2.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Quenton Jackson | SG/SF | IND | NY | $4,300 | 20.3 | 4.71 | model | — |
Notable players ruled out
Several high-salary players are out, including Paolo Banchero (ORL, $8,700), Tyrese Haliburton (IND, $8,400), Lauri Markkanen (UTAH, $7,500) and Evan Mobley (CLE, $7,100). Their teammates' minutes are open. The projections reflect that only where books have reposted lines. Where a player's projection comes from the model or a mix, check whether his role was adjusted. About the data: projections come mostly from betting lines, which show the market's view. Steals, blocks and turnovers come from recent games. Late news before lock can change everything, so recheck injury reports before you set a lineup.
| Player | Team | Salary | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero | ORL | $8,700 | Out |
| Tyrese Haliburton | IND | $8,400 | Out |
| Caleb Wilson | CHI | $7,500 | Out |
| Lauri Markkanen | UTAH | $7,500 | Out |
| Evan Mobley | CLE | $7,100 | Out |
| Trey Murphy III | NO | $6,900 | Out |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | UTAH | $6,900 | Out |
| Yves Missi | NO | $6,000 | Out |
| Jusuf Nurkic | UTAH | $5,900 | Out |
| Jalen Suggs | ORL | $5,800 | Out |
Top SG-eligible values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylon Tyson | SG/SF | CLE | MIA | $4,200 | 23.9 | 5.69 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 11.5, reb 4.5, tpm 1.5 |
| CJ McCollum | PG/SG | ATL | CHI | $5,300 | 28.7 | 5.41 | mixed | pts 14.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Anthony Black | PG/SG | ORL | MIL | $7,200 | 38.4 | 5.34 | model | — |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | SG/SF | IND | NY | $4,200 | 22.4 | 5.34 | mixed | pts 10.65, reb 3.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | PG/SG | ATL | CHI | $6,900 | 35.6 | 5.16 | prop lines | ast 2.5, pts 23.47, reb 2.5, tpm 3.5 |
Top SF-eligible values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Wilson | SF | ATL | CHI | $3,000 | 18.6 | 6.19 | model | — |
| Jaylon Tyson | SG/SF | CLE | MIA | $4,200 | 23.9 | 5.69 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 11.5, reb 4.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | SG/SF | IND | NY | $4,200 | 22.4 | 5.34 | mixed | pts 10.65, reb 3.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Jerami Grant | SF/PF | MEM | NO | $4,100 | 21.8 | 5.31 | mixed | pts 11.5, reb 2.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Matas Buzelis | SF/PF | CHI | ATL | $5,800 | 30.1 | 5.20 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 17.5, reb 4.5, tpm 1.5 |
Top PF-eligible values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Stewart | PF/C | MEM | NO | $3,900 | 21.3 | 5.45 | mixed | pts 10.5, reb 4.5 |
| Jerami Grant | SF/PF | MEM | NO | $4,100 | 21.8 | 5.31 | mixed | pts 11.5, reb 2.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Patrick Williams | PF | CHI | ATL | $4,000 | 20.8 | 5.21 | mixed | pts 8.5, reb 2.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Matas Buzelis | SF/PF | CHI | ATL | $5,800 | 30.1 | 5.20 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 17.5, reb 4.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Franz Wagner | SF/PF | ORL | MIL | $9,500 | 47.6 | 5.01 | mixed | pts 25.39, tpm 1.5 |
Questions
Who is the best value on the DraftKings main slate today?
**Jalen Wilson** (ATL, $3,000) has the highest projected points per $1,000 at 6.19, but that comes from our model, not a prop line. **Jaylon Tyson** (CLE, $4,200) is the top value backed by prop lines, at 5.69.
Where do these projections come from?
They come mostly from posted sportsbook prop lines, which reflect the market's view. Where no line was posted, our usage model fills in, and steals, blocks and turnovers come from recent games.
Do the ruled-out players make their teammates a good play?
Open minutes can help, but the projections only reflect that where books have reposted lines. Confirm roles and check late news before lock.