NBA DFS picks for Wednesday, November 11: DraftKings value plays
Devin Carter tops the value board on a 10-game main slate, but most of the cheap names come from our usage model rather than posted prop lines.
Best values on the slate
Devin Carter (BOS, PG, $3,900) leads the board at 6.77 projected points per $1,000, with a projection of 26.4. His projection comes from our model, not a posted line, so it carries more uncertainty. His minutes over the last 10 games are 28.7. The next best are Javon Small (MEM, $3,900) at 5.89 and Cormac Ryan (MIL, $3,000) at 5.86. Both are model-based too. If you want a value built on market lines, look at Jakob Poeltl (TOR, $5,200, 5.38) and Immanuel Quickley (TOR, $6,800, 5.34). Quickley is tagged Day-To-Day, so check his status before lock. This is a ranking of price against projection. It does not tell you who will hit.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Carter | PG | BOS | TOR | $3,900 | 26.4 | 6.77 | model | — |
| Javon Small | PG/SG | MEM | DEN | $3,900 | 23.0 | 5.89 | model | — |
| Cormac Ryan | PG | MIL | LAL | $3,000 | 17.6 | 5.86 | model | — |
| Quenton Jackson | SG/SF | IND | WSH | $4,000 | 22.3 | 5.58 | model | — |
| Pete Nance | C | MIL | LAL | $3,000 | 16.3 | 5.44 | model | — |
| Jakob Poeltl | C | TOR | BOS | $5,200 | 28.0 | 5.38 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 11.5, reb 7.5 |
| Immanuel Quickley | PG | TOR | BOS | $6,800 | 36.3 | 5.34 | prop lines | ast 5.5, pts 18.48, reb 3.5, tpm 2.5 |
| Patrick Williams | PF | CHI | SA | $3,500 | 18.5 | 5.28 | model | — |
| Cameron Johnson | SG/SF | DEN | MEM | $4,500 | 23.4 | 5.20 | mixed | pts 11.5, reb 3.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Nikola Jokic | C | DEN | MEM | $11,500 | 59.2 | 5.14 | prop lines | ast 8.5, pts 26.49, reb 11.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Zach Edey | C | MEM | DEN | $5,000 | 25.7 | 5.14 | mixed | pts 8.5, reb 8.5 |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | C | BKN | NO | $5,300 | 27.2 | 5.13 | prop lines | ast 3.5, pts 8.5, reb 7.5 |
Top value at each position
At guard, Carter, Small and Ryan lead the PG list. Small is also the top SG-eligible value. Quenton Jackson (IND, SG/SF, $4,000) is next at 5.58 and tops the SF-eligible list. At forward, Patrick Williams (CHI, PF, $3,500) leads the PF-eligible list at 5.28 on a model projection of 18.5. Cameron Johnson (DEN, $4,500) is a mixed-source option at 5.20. At center, Pete Nance (MIL, $3,000) leads at 5.44, then Poeltl. Nikola Jokic ($11,500) projects at 59.2 and 5.14 per $1,000 from prop lines, which is strong value even at the top of the salary scale. Per-dollar value favors cheap players, so the projected total still matters when you build a lineup.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Nance | C | MIL | LAL | $3,000 | 16.3 | 5.44 | model | — |
| Jakob Poeltl | C | TOR | BOS | $5,200 | 28.0 | 5.38 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 11.5, reb 7.5 |
| Nikola Jokic | C | DEN | MEM | $11,500 | 59.2 | 5.14 | prop lines | ast 8.5, pts 26.49, reb 11.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Zach Edey | C | MEM | DEN | $5,000 | 25.7 | 5.14 | mixed | pts 8.5, reb 8.5 |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | C | BKN | NO | $5,300 | 27.2 | 5.13 | prop lines | ast 3.5, pts 8.5, reb 7.5 |
Salary savers
Eight players at $4,500 or less made the list. Carter projects highest at 26.4. Cameron Johnson (23.4) and Collin Sexton (LAL, $4,500, 23.0) follow. Sexton's minutes are a concern. He has averaged 18.4 over his last 10 games, and his projection is model-based. Danny Wolf (BKN, C, $4,500) projects at 22.7 with 22.2 recent minutes. At $3,000, Ryan and Nance both average more than 26 recent minutes, which is why the model likes them. Cheap players can still lose minutes to a blowout or a rotation change.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Carter | PG | BOS | TOR | $3,900 | 26.4 | 6.77 | model | — |
| Cameron Johnson | SG/SF | DEN | MEM | $4,500 | 23.4 | 5.20 | mixed | pts 11.5, reb 3.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Collin Sexton | PG/SG | LAL | MIL | $4,500 | 23.0 | 5.12 | model | — |
| Javon Small | PG/SG | MEM | DEN | $3,900 | 23.0 | 5.89 | model | — |
| Danny Wolf | C | BKN | NO | $4,500 | 22.7 | 5.04 | model | — |
| Quenton Jackson | SG/SF | IND | WSH | $4,000 | 22.3 | 5.58 | model | — |
| Jerami Grant | SF/PF | MEM | DEN | $4,200 | 20.8 | 4.95 | mixed | pts 10.5, reb 1.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Jordan Poole | PG/SG | NO | BKN | $4,000 | 19.4 | 4.84 | model | — |
Notable players ruled out
Nine players priced at $5,000 or more are listed as out, including Scottie Barnes ($8,800), Tyrese Haliburton ($8,400), Kawhi Leonard ($7,800) and Paul George ($7,400). Their teammates may see more minutes. Our projections reflect that only where books have reposted lines. Model-based numbers may not fully account for it, so some cheap players on those teams could be under- or overstated.
| Player | Team | Salary | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Barnes | TOR | $8,800 | Out |
| Tyrese Haliburton | IND | $8,400 | Out |
| Kawhi Leonard | TOR | $7,800 | Out |
| Paul George | BOS | $7,400 | Out |
| Josh Hart | NY | $6,000 | Out |
| Yves Missi | NO | $6,000 | Out |
| Tobias Harris | SA | $5,100 | Out |
| Myles Turner | MIL | $5,000 | Out |
| Quentin Grimes | LAL | $5,000 | Out |
How to read these projections
Points, rebounds, assists and threes come mostly from posted sportsbook prop lines, which are the market's view. Only 56 of the 199 priced players have lines. Steals, blocks and turnovers come from recent games. For the others, our usage model fills the gaps. Those projections are not market-backed. Late news before the 19:00 ET first tip can change everything. Re-check injury reports and lineups before you lock.
Top PG-eligible values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Carter | PG | BOS | TOR | $3,900 | 26.4 | 6.77 | model | — |
| Javon Small | PG/SG | MEM | DEN | $3,900 | 23.0 | 5.89 | model | — |
| Cormac Ryan | PG | MIL | LAL | $3,000 | 17.6 | 5.86 | model | — |
| Immanuel Quickley | PG | TOR | BOS | $6,800 | 36.3 | 5.34 | prop lines | ast 5.5, pts 18.48, reb 3.5, tpm 2.5 |
| Collin Sexton | PG/SG | LAL | MIL | $4,500 | 23.0 | 5.12 | model | — |
Top SG-eligible values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Small | PG/SG | MEM | DEN | $3,900 | 23.0 | 5.89 | model | — |
| Quenton Jackson | SG/SF | IND | WSH | $4,000 | 22.3 | 5.58 | model | — |
| Cameron Johnson | SG/SF | DEN | MEM | $4,500 | 23.4 | 5.20 | mixed | pts 11.5, reb 3.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Aaron Nesmith | SG/SF | IND | WSH | $4,700 | 24.1 | 5.13 | mixed | pts 13.5, reb 3.23, tpm 1.5 |
| Collin Sexton | PG/SG | LAL | MIL | $4,500 | 23.0 | 5.12 | model | — |
Top SF-eligible values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quenton Jackson | SG/SF | IND | WSH | $4,000 | 22.3 | 5.58 | model | — |
| Cameron Johnson | SG/SF | DEN | MEM | $4,500 | 23.4 | 5.20 | mixed | pts 11.5, reb 3.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Aaron Nesmith | SG/SF | IND | WSH | $4,700 | 24.1 | 5.13 | mixed | pts 13.5, reb 3.23, tpm 1.5 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | SF | BKN | NO | $7,500 | 38.0 | 5.07 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 22.5, reb 6.5, tpm 2.5 |
| Keldon Johnson | SF/PF | SA | CHI | $4,600 | 22.8 | 4.95 | model | — |
Top PF-eligible values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Williams | PF | CHI | SA | $3,500 | 18.5 | 5.28 | model | — |
| Keldon Johnson | SF/PF | SA | CHI | $4,600 | 22.8 | 4.95 | model | — |
| Jerami Grant | SF/PF | MEM | DEN | $4,200 | 20.8 | 4.95 | mixed | pts 10.5, reb 1.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Anthony Davis | PF | WSH | IND | $8,900 | 43.2 | 4.85 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 22.5, reb 9.54 |
| Matas Buzelis | SF/PF | CHI | SA | $5,500 | 26.2 | 4.76 | prop lines | ast 1.5, pts 13.5, reb 4.5, tpm 1.5 |
Questions
Who is the best DraftKings value on Wednesday, November 11?
**Devin Carter** (BOS, $3,900) rates highest at 6.77 projected points per $1,000, but his projection comes from our model rather than prop lines.
Where do these DFS projections come from?
Mostly from sportsbook prop lines for points, rebounds, assists and threes. Our usage model fills in where no line was posted, and steals, blocks and turnovers come from recent games.
Do injuries to Barnes, Haliburton and others change the projections?
Only where books have reposted lines. Teammates' minutes may be open, but model-based projections may not fully reflect that.