NBA DFS picks for Monday, November 9: DraftKings value plays
Three cheap guards and wings top the value board, but all three come from our usage model, not posted prop lines. Here is where the projections come from and what they can't tell you.
The best values on the board
Javon Small (MEM, $3,500) and Jalen Wilson (ATL, $3,000) both project at 6.06 points per $1,000, the top of the board. Walter Clayton Jr. (DAL, $3,300) is right behind at 6.02. All three come from our usage model, not posted prop lines, so treat them as softer than a market-based number. The highest-rated player with a full set of prop lines is Naz Reid (CHA, $6,900) at 5.61, projected for 38.7 points. His lines are 18.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.5 threes. That is the market's view of a bigger role, and it makes him the more grounded value at a higher salary. The projections come mostly from betting lines. Steals, blocks and turnovers come from recent games. Late news before lock can change everything.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Small | PG/SG | MEM | TOR | $3,500 | 21.2 | 6.06 | model | — |
| Jalen Wilson | SF | ATL | LAL | $3,000 | 18.2 | 6.06 | model | — |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | PG | DAL | IND | $3,300 | 19.9 | 6.02 | model | — |
| Naz Reid | PF/C | CHA | CLE | $6,900 | 38.7 | 5.61 | prop lines | ast 2.5, pts 18.5, reb 8.5, tpm 2.5 |
| Malachi Smith | PG/SG | TOR | MEM | $3,000 | 15.9 | 5.30 | model | — |
| Cameron Johnson | SG/SF | DEN | HOU | $4,500 | 23.8 | 5.28 | model | — |
| Immanuel Quickley | PG | TOR | MEM | $6,800 | 35.2 | 5.18 | prop lines | ast 5.5, pts 17.5, reb 3.5, tpm 2.5 |
| Daniel Gafford | C | DAL | IND | $5,000 | 25.8 | 5.16 | mixed | pts 9.5, reb 6.5 |
| Braden Smith | PG | IND | DAL | $3,300 | 17.0 | 5.14 | model | — |
| Grayson Allen | SG/SF | CHA | CLE | $5,200 | 26.5 | 5.10 | prop lines | ast 2.5, pts 15.5, reb 2.5, tpm 2.5 |
| Morez Johnson | PF/C | DAL | IND | $3,900 | 19.9 | 5.10 | model | — |
| Scottie Barnes | PG/SF | TOR | MEM | $8,800 | 44.7 | 5.08 | prop lines | ast 5.5, pts 23.47, reb 6.88 |
Top value at each position
At guard, Small and Clayton lead the PG list. Malachi Smith (TOR, $3,000) projects at 5.30, though his 15.9 points is a low ceiling. Immanuel Quickley (TOR, $6,800) is the prop-line option at 5.18, and he carries a Day-To-Day tag. At SG, Cameron Johnson (DEN, $4,500) projects for 23.8 points at 5.28, but he is also Day-To-Day and his number is model-based. Grayson Allen (CHA, $5,200) is the prop-line choice at 5.10. A high points-per-dollar rate doesn't mean a high score. It means the price looks low against the projection.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Small | PG/SG | MEM | TOR | $3,500 | 21.2 | 6.06 | model | — |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | PG | DAL | IND | $3,300 | 19.9 | 6.02 | model | — |
| Malachi Smith | PG/SG | TOR | MEM | $3,000 | 15.9 | 5.30 | model | — |
| Immanuel Quickley | PG | TOR | MEM | $6,800 | 35.2 | 5.18 | prop lines | ast 5.5, pts 17.5, reb 3.5, tpm 2.5 |
| Braden Smith | PG | IND | DAL | $3,300 | 17.0 | 5.14 | model | — |
Forwards and centers
Wilson leads the SF list. Scottie Barnes (TOR, $8,800) projects at 5.08 on prop lines, but he is Day-To-Day, so check his status before lock. At PF and C, Reid is first. Daniel Gafford (DAL, $5,000) is next at 5.16 with a mixed projection: only points and rebounds have posted lines. Morez Johnson (DAL, $3,900) is 5.10 but model-based and Day-To-Day. Victor Wembanyama (SA, $11,300) projects for 56.7 points at 5.02, built on prop lines.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naz Reid | PF/C | CHA | CLE | $6,900 | 38.7 | 5.61 | prop lines | ast 2.5, pts 18.5, reb 8.5, tpm 2.5 |
| Daniel Gafford | C | DAL | IND | $5,000 | 25.8 | 5.16 | mixed | pts 9.5, reb 6.5 |
| Morez Johnson | PF/C | DAL | IND | $3,900 | 19.9 | 5.10 | model | — |
| Victor Wembanyama | C | SA | PHX | $11,300 | 56.7 | 5.02 | prop lines | ast 2.5, pts 27.5, reb 11.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Alperen Sengun | PF/C | HOU | DEN | $9,000 | 45.2 | 5.02 | prop lines | ast 6.5, pts 20.5, reb 8.5 |
Cheap salary savers
Among players at $4,500 or less, Cameron Johnson has the most projected points at 23.8. Keldon Johnson (SA, $4,400) is next at 21.6, then Jarace Walker (IND, $4,500) at 21.4. Most of this group is model-based, so these numbers are rougher than the prop-line ones. Daniss Jenkins (DET, $4,300) is the one saver here with a full set of lines behind him, projected for 20.4 points.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Johnson | SG/SF | DEN | HOU | $4,500 | 23.8 | 5.28 | model | — |
| Keldon Johnson | SF/PF | SA | PHX | $4,400 | 21.6 | 4.90 | model | — |
| Jarace Walker | SF | IND | DAL | $4,500 | 21.4 | 4.75 | model | — |
| Julian Champagnie | SG | SA | PHX | $4,500 | 21.3 | 4.74 | mixed | pts 9.49, reb 3.79, tpm 1.5 |
| Aaron Nesmith | SG/SF | IND | DAL | $4,400 | 21.2 | 4.82 | mixed | pts 11.5, reb 2.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Javon Small | PG/SG | MEM | TOR | $3,500 | 21.2 | 6.06 | model | — |
| Meleek Thomas | SG/SF | CLE | CHA | $4,300 | 20.6 | 4.79 | model | — |
| Daniss Jenkins | PG/SG | DET | WSH | $4,300 | 20.4 | 4.75 | prop lines | ast 3.5, pts 9.5, reb 2.5, tpm 0.5 |
Notable players ruled out
Tyrese Haliburton (IND, $8,400), Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel (both CHA) are among the players ruled out. Their teammates' minutes are open. The projections only reflect that where books have reposted lines. Where a player's projection is from our model, the extra minutes may not be fully priced in. That is a reason to watch, not a reason to assume a jump.
| Player | Team | Salary | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Haliburton | IND | $8,400 | Out |
| Brandon Miller | CHA | $7,900 | Out |
| Kawhi Leonard | TOR | $7,800 | Out |
| Kon Knueppel | CHA | $7,000 | Out |
| Jalen Duren | DET | $6,800 | Out |
| Dennis Schroder | CHA | $5,400 | Out |
| Devin Vassell | SA | $5,300 | Out |
| Tobias Harris | SA | $5,100 | Out |
Top SG-eligible values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Small | PG/SG | MEM | TOR | $3,500 | 21.2 | 6.06 | model | — |
| Malachi Smith | PG/SG | TOR | MEM | $3,000 | 15.9 | 5.30 | model | — |
| Cameron Johnson | SG/SF | DEN | HOU | $4,500 | 23.8 | 5.28 | model | — |
| Grayson Allen | SG/SF | CHA | CLE | $5,200 | 26.5 | 5.10 | prop lines | ast 2.5, pts 15.5, reb 2.5, tpm 2.5 |
| RJ Barrett | SG/SF | TOR | MEM | $7,600 | 38.0 | 4.99 | prop lines | ast 3.5, pts 23.5, reb 5.5, tpm 1.5 |
Top SF-eligible values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Wilson | SF | ATL | LAL | $3,000 | 18.2 | 6.06 | model | — |
| Cameron Johnson | SG/SF | DEN | HOU | $4,500 | 23.8 | 5.28 | model | — |
| Grayson Allen | SG/SF | CHA | CLE | $5,200 | 26.5 | 5.10 | prop lines | ast 2.5, pts 15.5, reb 2.5, tpm 2.5 |
| Scottie Barnes | PG/SF | TOR | MEM | $8,800 | 44.7 | 5.08 | prop lines | ast 5.5, pts 23.47, reb 6.88 |
| RJ Barrett | SG/SF | TOR | MEM | $7,600 | 38.0 | 4.99 | prop lines | ast 3.5, pts 23.5, reb 5.5, tpm 1.5 |
Top PF-eligible values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naz Reid | PF/C | CHA | CLE | $6,900 | 38.7 | 5.61 | prop lines | ast 2.5, pts 18.5, reb 8.5, tpm 2.5 |
| Morez Johnson | PF/C | DAL | IND | $3,900 | 19.9 | 5.10 | model | — |
| Alperen Sengun | PF/C | HOU | DEN | $9,000 | 45.2 | 5.02 | prop lines | ast 6.5, pts 20.5, reb 8.5 |
| Santi Aldama | PF/C | DAL | IND | $4,600 | 22.8 | 4.97 | model | — |
| Keldon Johnson | SF/PF | SA | PHX | $4,400 | 21.6 | 4.90 | model | — |
Questions
Who is the best value on the DraftKings main slate today?
Javon Small and Jalen Wilson tie at 6.06 points per $1,000, both from our usage model. Naz Reid at 5.61 is the top value built on prop lines.
Where do these projections come from?
Mostly from posted sportsbook prop lines, which is the market's view. Where no line was posted, our usage model fills in, and steals, blocks and turnovers come from recent games.
Can the projections change before lock?
Yes. Injury news, including for players tagged Day-To-Day, can change the picture, so check status before the first tip.