NBA DFS picks for Wednesday, October 28: DraftKings value plays
The cheapest projected values lean on our usage model, not posted lines. Here is where the numbers point, and where they could be wrong.
Best values on the slate
Julian Reese ($3,000, NO) tops the board at 7.64 projected points per $1,000. His projection of 22.9 points comes from our model, not a posted line, so treat it as softer than a market-based number. He has averaged 30.3 minutes over his last 10 games, which supports the role. Clint Capela ($3,100, HOU) is next at 6.76, but his minutes over the last 10 games are only 10.1. That makes his projection much riskier than the price suggests. Rayan Rupert ($3,600, PHI) projects at 23.8 points on 32.9 minutes, also from the model. Among players with full prop-line projections, Ayo Dosunmu ($5,200, MIN) stands out at 5.95 per $1,000 and 30.9 projected points. A good value rate does not guarantee a good result. It only says the price looks low relative to the expected output.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Reese | PF | NO | DEN | $3,000 | 22.9 | 7.64 | model | — |
| Clint Capela | C | HOU | MIL | $3,100 | 21.0 | 6.76 | mixed | pts 7.5, reb 7.5 |
| Rayan Rupert | SG/SF | PHI | IND | $3,600 | 23.8 | 6.62 | model | — |
| Jalen Wilson | SF | ATL | MIA | $3,000 | 18.6 | 6.20 | model | — |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | C | HOU | MIL | $3,000 | 18.2 | 6.08 | model | — |
| DeAndre Jordan | C | NO | DEN | $3,200 | 19.2 | 6.01 | model | — |
| Jay Huff | C | IND | PHI | $3,800 | 22.7 | 5.97 | mixed | pts 9.5, reb 4.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | SG/SF | MIN | GS | $5,200 | 30.9 | 5.95 | prop lines | ast 4.4, pts 16.01, reb 3.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Reed Sheppard | SG | HOU | MIL | $4,800 | 28.1 | 5.85 | model | — |
| Cormac Ryan | SG | MIL | HOU | $3,000 | 17.5 | 5.82 | model | — |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | SG/SF | MIN | GS | $3,700 | 21.4 | 5.78 | model | — |
| Jonathan Kuminga | PF | MIN | GS | $5,100 | 29.4 | 5.76 | prop lines | ast 1.69, pts 15, reb 5.5, tpm 1.47 |
Top value at each position
At PG, Fred VanVleet ($5,500, HOU) and Ja'Kobe Walter ($4,600, TOR) both come in at 5.57. VanVleet's number is built from prop lines. Walter's is mixed. At SG, Rupert leads. At SF, Rupert is first and Jalen Wilson ($3,000, ATL) second at 6.20, though Wilson's number is model-only. At PF, Reese leads and Jonathan Kuminga ($5,100, MIN) is the top line-based option at 5.76. At C, Capela leads, followed by Oscar Tshiebwe (HOU) and DeAndre Jordan (NO). Several of these players share a team, such as HOU at C and MIN at SG and PF. Stacking them ties your lineup to a single game script.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred VanVleet | PG | HOU | MIL | $5,500 | 30.6 | 5.57 | prop lines | ast 6.5, pts 12.5, reb 2.5, tpm 2.5 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | PG/SG | TOR | ORL | $4,600 | 25.6 | 5.57 | mixed | pts 12.5, reb 3.5, tpm 1.5 |
| LaMelo Ball | PG | MIN | GS | $7,700 | 42.0 | 5.45 | prop lines | ast 6.5, pts 22.5, reb 4.5, tpm 3.5 |
| Amen Thompson | PG/SG | HOU | MIL | $7,000 | 38.1 | 5.44 | prop lines | ast 4.5, pts 17.5, reb 7.5 |
| CJ McCollum | PG/SG | ATL | MIA | $5,300 | 28.8 | 5.43 | prop lines | ast 2.5, pts 17.5, reb 1.5, tpm 1.5 |
Salary savers
If you need cheap salary, the savers list is sorted by projected points. Rupert is first at 23.8, Reese second at 22.9, and Jay Huff ($3,800, IND) third at 22.7. Huff's projection is mixed, using posted lines for points, rebounds and threes. Most of the cheap names here are model-based. With no market line to check them against, expect wider misses in both directions.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan Rupert | SG/SF | PHI | IND | $3,600 | 23.8 | 6.62 | model | — |
| Julian Reese | PF | NO | DEN | $3,000 | 22.9 | 7.64 | model | — |
| Jay Huff | C | IND | PHI | $3,800 | 22.7 | 5.97 | mixed | pts 9.5, reb 4.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Cameron Johnson | SF | DEN | NO | $4,400 | 22.4 | 5.10 | model | — |
| Bilal Coulibaly | SF | WSH | CLE | $4,500 | 22.4 | 4.98 | model | — |
| Jarace Walker | SF | IND | PHI | $4,300 | 22.1 | 5.14 | model | — |
| Pelle Larsson | SG/SF | MIA | ATL | $4,300 | 21.8 | 5.06 | mixed | pts 9.5, reb 2.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | SG/SF | MIN | GS | $3,700 | 21.4 | 5.78 | model | — |
Notable players ruled out
Several high-priced players are out, including Anthony Edwards (MIN), Alperen Sengun (HOU) and Tyrese Haliburton (IND). Their teammates should see more minutes and usage. But the projections only reflect that where books have reposted lines. Where a player's projection comes from our model, it may not fully capture the extra opportunity. Check the source column before assuming a bump is priced in.
| Player | Team | Salary | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | MIN | $9,200 | Out |
| Paolo Banchero | ORL | $8,800 | Out |
| Alperen Sengun | HOU | $8,600 | Out |
| Tyrese Haliburton | IND | $8,400 | Out |
| Kawhi Leonard | TOR | $8,000 | Out |
| Kon Knueppel | CHA | $7,000 | Out |
| Ivica Zubac | IND | $6,900 | Out |
| Jalen Duren | DET | $6,800 | Out |
| Jalen Suggs | ORL | $6,100 | Out |
| Jimmy Butler | GS | $6,100 | Out |
How these projections are built
Of 245 priced players, only 63 have projections built from prop lines. Those lines show the market's view. Everything else uses our usage model in part or in full. Steals, blocks and turnovers come from recent games, not from lines. First tip is 19:00 ET. Late news before lock can change minutes, roles and values quickly. Confirm injury status before you set a lineup. These are projections, not picks.
Top SG-eligible values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan Rupert | SG/SF | PHI | IND | $3,600 | 23.8 | 6.62 | model | — |
| Ayo Dosunmu | SG/SF | MIN | GS | $5,200 | 30.9 | 5.95 | prop lines | ast 4.4, pts 16.01, reb 3.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Reed Sheppard | SG | HOU | MIL | $4,800 | 28.1 | 5.85 | model | — |
| Cormac Ryan | SG | MIL | HOU | $3,000 | 17.5 | 5.82 | model | — |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | SG/SF | MIN | GS | $3,700 | 21.4 | 5.78 | model | — |
Top SF-eligible values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan Rupert | SG/SF | PHI | IND | $3,600 | 23.8 | 6.62 | model | — |
| Jalen Wilson | SF | ATL | MIA | $3,000 | 18.6 | 6.20 | model | — |
| Ayo Dosunmu | SG/SF | MIN | GS | $5,200 | 30.9 | 5.95 | prop lines | ast 4.4, pts 16.01, reb 3.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | SG/SF | MIN | GS | $3,700 | 21.4 | 5.78 | model | — |
| Kevin Durant | SF | HOU | MIL | $7,500 | 40.7 | 5.43 | prop lines | ast 3.5, pts 26.5, reb 5.5, tpm 1.5 |
Top PF-eligible values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Reese | PF | NO | DEN | $3,000 | 22.9 | 7.64 | model | — |
| Jonathan Kuminga | PF | MIN | GS | $5,100 | 29.4 | 5.76 | prop lines | ast 1.69, pts 15, reb 5.5, tpm 1.47 |
| Bobby Portis | PF/C | MIA | ATL | $4,800 | 26.4 | 5.49 | mixed | pts 11.35, reb 6.5, tpm 1.5 |
| Scottie Barnes | SF/PF | TOR | ORL | $8,300 | 44.5 | 5.36 | prop lines | ast 5.5, pts 21.38, reb 7.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Tari Eason | SF/PF | HOU | MIL | $4,600 | 24.7 | 5.36 | mixed | pts 11.5, reb 5.5, tpm 0.5 |
Top C-eligible values
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj pts | Pts per $1K | From | Prop lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clint Capela | C | HOU | MIL | $3,100 | 21.0 | 6.76 | mixed | pts 7.5, reb 7.5 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | C | HOU | MIL | $3,000 | 18.2 | 6.08 | model | — |
| DeAndre Jordan | C | NO | DEN | $3,200 | 19.2 | 6.01 | model | — |
| Jay Huff | C | IND | PHI | $3,800 | 22.7 | 5.97 | mixed | pts 9.5, reb 4.5, tpm 0.5 |
| Bobby Portis | PF/C | MIA | ATL | $4,800 | 26.4 | 5.49 | mixed | pts 11.35, reb 6.5, tpm 1.5 |
Questions
Who is the best value on the DraftKings NBA main slate tonight?
**Julian Reese** ($3,000, NO) has the highest projected points per $1,000 at 7.64, but his projection comes from our model, not a posted prop line.
Where do these DFS projections come from?
Mostly from sportsbook prop lines for points, rebounds, assists and threes, with our usage model filling in where no line was posted. Steals, blocks and turnovers come from recent games.
Do injuries to stars like Anthony Edwards change the projections?
Only where books have reposted lines for his teammates. Where projections come from the model, the extra minutes may not be fully reflected, so check late news before lock.