Receipts: a winning week for Mako Bets, but the season picture is mixed
All models combined finished +14.79 units over the seven days since 2026-10-16. Most of that came from one model, and two college football lines are still under water for the season.
The week: up 14.79 units, with caveats
Taken together, the models finished the week at +14.79 units. That is a winning week, and we are reporting it as one. But a good week is not proof of an edge. Several models below have only a handful of graded picks, and one week of results can swing either way. Read the table as a record of what happened, not a forecast.
| Model | This week | Week units | Season W-L | Season units | Season return | Graded | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 rushing and receiving unders | 23-21 | +8.05 | 24-21 | +8.95 | +19.9% | 45 | Forward test in progress |
| L3 rushing and receiving yards usage models | 7-3 | +3.32 | 7-3 | +3.32 | +33.2% | 10 | Failed design test; shown by choice |
| L2 receptions usage model | 5-1 | +2.96 | 5-1 | +2.96 | +49.4% | 6 | Passed holdout read 2 (design version); live forward test |
| L4 passing yards usage model | 2-0 | +1.77 | 2-0 | +1.77 | +88.5% | 2 | Failed design test; shown by choice |
| College football picks shown on the site | 23-20 | +1.51 | 25-37 | -13.58 | -21.9% | 62 | Live forward test |
| College football picks not shown on the site | 20-21-1 | -0.05 | 102-130 | -13.61 | -5.8% | 233 | Logged, not shown on the site |
| USE-NBA usage model | 164-153 | -2.78 | 164-153 | -2.78 | -0.9% | 317 | Failed its tests in every market (holdout or design); shown by choice |
Best and worst this week
The best week by units came from L1 rushing and receiving unders, at +8.05 units on a 23-21 record. Its season mark is 24-21 for +8.95 units, a +19.9% return on 45 graded picks. That is a real sample for a week, but it is still a forward test in progress, so treat it as unproven. The worst week by units belonged to the USE-NBA usage model, at -2.78 units on 164-153. It is the only model with a negative week of any size besides a near-flat college football line. Its season record is identical, since this is its first week in the packet, and its season return is -0.9%. Its status note says it failed its tests in every market, and we show it by choice.
Small samples: don't read much into these
The packet flags anything under 150 graded picks as a small sample. That covers most of this list. L3 rushing and receiving yards usage models went 7-3 for +3.32 units on 10 graded picks. L2 receptions usage model went 5-1 for +2.96 units on 6. L4 passing yards usage model went 2-0 for +1.77 units on 2. Those percentage returns look large, including +88.5% for L4, but two picks tell you almost nothing. Both L3 and L4 failed their design tests, so a hot start does not change that. L2 passed holdout read 2 on its design version and is in a live forward test. That is encouraging, but six picks cannot confirm it.
College football: the season is still negative
The college football picks shown on the site went 23-20 this week for +1.51 units. For the season they are 25-37 for -13.58 units, a -21.9% return on 62 graded picks. One good week does not erase that, and the sample is still small. The college football picks not shown on the site went 20-21-1 for -0.05 units this week. Their season record is 102-130 for -13.61 units, a -5.8% return on 233 graded picks. That is a larger sample, and it leans negative. We log these picks but do not show them on the site.
Questions
Did Mako Bets models win or lose this week?
They won: all models combined were up 14.79 units over the seven days since 2026-10-16. L1 rushing and receiving unders supplied +8.05 of that.
Which Mako Bets model had the worst week?
The USE-NBA usage model, at -2.78 units on a 164-153 record. Its status says it failed its tests in every market.
Is a 2-0 or 7-3 record enough to trust a model?
No. The packet treats anything below 150 graded picks as a small sample, and L4 has 2 graded picks while L3 has 10.